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Eastern Loudoun County Housing Supply By Zip Code

March 31, 2009 by Danilo Bogdanovic  
Filed under Statistics

Here's a breakdown of the amount of housing supply in Eastern Loudoun County by zip code:

20152 - 3.8 month's supply

20148 – 3.9 month's supply

20147 – 2.6 month's supply

20166 – 3.3 month's supply

20165 – 1.9 month's supply

20164 – 1.7 month's supply

20176 – 4.8 month's supply

20175 – 4.0 month's supply

What do these "month's supply" numbers mean? The general rule of thumb is,

  • more than 6 month's supply = buyer's market
  • 4 to 6 month's supply = balanced/equal market
  • less than 4 month's supply = seller's market

Sellers, don't get too excited – regardless of how little inventory there is on the market, you must price your property correctly or it will sit on the market collecting "Days On Market" and dust (more about this coming up in a post soon).

Related Articles

Sterling Park Leads Loudoun County in Home Buyer Demand

Where Are All the Homes For Buyers To Choose From?!

Putting Loudoun's Housing Market in Perspective

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Sterling Park Leads Loudoun County in Home Buyer Demand

March 27, 2009 by Danilo Bogdanovic  
Filed under Statistics

When looking at supply and demand figures for Loudoun County, something jumped out at me… The 20164 zip code (Sterling Park) has the most home buyer demand out of any zip code in Loudoun County – and not just by a little.

Since March 1st, 102 homes have gone under contract (sold) in the 20164 zip code (Sterling Park). That equals 3.9 homes that sell each day.

The 20176 zip code (North and East Leesburg) came in second at 2.7 per day. That's 31 percent less buyer demand than in Sterling Park.

The lowest buyer demand can be found in the 20166 zip code (part of Sterling closest to Dulles Airport and Herndon) at 0.5 per day. That's 87 percent less buyer demand than in Sterling Park.

You may be thinking, "There are more homes for sale in Sterling Park than in other areas so of course there's going to be more buyer demand".

That doesn't hold true because Sterling Park has 200 active homes on the market as of today while second place 20176 has 387 – almost double. And two other zip codes also have more inventory on the market than Sterling Park - 20147 has 233 active homes on the market and 20175 has 206.

So why does Sterling Park lead Loudoun County in home buyer demand?

A big part is due to the price point – the lower the price point, the more people can afford to buy there. The median sold price in Sterling Park is $160,000 and the average sold price is $194,833 (the median sold price is a better gauge of market values/prices in Sterling Park). That's well below the overall Loudoun County median sales price of $223,750 and average sales price of $306,821.

If you're curious as to how other zip codes and areas in Loudoun are doing when it comes to supply and demand, check back soon – I'll be writing a post about that over the weekend.

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Help Nominate FranklyMLS.com for 2009 Inman Innovator Awards

March 27, 2009 by Danilo Bogdanovic  
Filed under Web/Tech

It's that time of year again – time for the Inman Innovator Awards. And this year, I believe that FranklyMLS.com is due the recognition it deserves. That is why I nominated FranklyMLS.com for the "Most Innovative Web Service" category.

If you haven't checked out FranklyMLS.com, here's a brief overview of why it's so innovative (and why you should use it)…

  • Loads faster than any other residential real estate search site in the area
  • Updates to listings on FranklyMLS.com show up faster than on 99% of other listing sites
  • Cell-phone/PDA mode is faster and better configured for cell-phones/PDAs than any other site
  • Only listing site around that allows Buyer's Agents to review properties and add photos so that consumers can get a better idea of what the property looks like without having to call an agent
  • Only listing site around that has links from the listing to hyper-local blog posts so that buyers can get more information about the specific neighborhood/town the property is located within
  • Only listing site around that has a live chat feature so that consumers can chat directly (and anonymously) with quality agents in the area they're looking in
  • First (and still the best) listing site to offer keyword searches (granite, 2 car garage, bank-owned, Broadlands, etc)
  • Only listing site around that allows consumers to filter their search results to only foreclosure/bank-owned and/or short-sale properties (or vice cersa)
  • Only listing site around to allow for sorting by total views
  • Only listing site around that has the listing's price history in plain view
  • Direct link from the listing to the county tax records (Fairfax County only, but expanding)
  • Hide a listing from your search forever by simply clicking an "X"
  • "Walk-Score" on every listing
  • Google Maps and Microsoft Virtual Earth available on every listing
  • Only listing site around that also has For-Sale-By-Owner homes on it
  • Branded IDX for agents/brokers
  • All this plus "Favorites", email alerts including price changes, "Sold Alerts" and much more…

No other listing site around here (nor the US probably) has as many innovative and forward-thinking features. This site is not only great for consumers, but it's great for agents/brokers. In fact, I use FranklyMLS.com just as much as the regional agent/broker-facing MLS site, especially on my BlackBerry when out in the field working.

If you couldn't tell, I'm a big fan of FranklyMLS.com. That's why I nominated FranklyMLS.com for the "Most Innovative Web Service" award and am asking you to consider doing the same (if you feel its deserved).

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Help Those with Diabetes-Sponsor or Join Me in the Tour de Cure

March 25, 2009 by Danilo Bogdanovic  
Filed under Charity/Causes

Tour de Cure 2009

In an effort to help raise awareness and money for Diabetes, I am riding in the American Diabetes Association National Capital Tour de Cure on June 14, 2009. I'm part of the"BeExcited" team, which is named after my sister-in-law's new apparel line which she launched this year. The apparel line is geared towards women (I know all you guys are now bummed you can't wear shirts with "BeExcited" logos on them) and part of the proceeds are being donated to charities such as the Tour de Cure.

Despite this area's Tour de Cure being the 5th largest in the nation with over 1200 riders, the American Diabetes Association could use all the help it can get. If you would like to ride in the Tour de Cure, feel free to join our team or register as an individual rider. If you don't bike or can't make it on that date, please click here to donate whatever you can to the cause. And if you're a business that would like to check out sponsorship opportunities, check out their sponsorhip brochure (pdf).

Thanks!

More details about the event…

The ride starts at the Reston Town Center and goes through Fairfax County and Loudoun County. There are several different rides starting at 1-12 miles and going all the way up to a Century. There are several rest stops along the way with food, water and energy drinks. Medical personnel will be stationed along the route should anyone need medical assistance.

In addition to the ride, there are events during and afterwards including live music, food, drinks, free bike tuning, bike clinics, etc. Bike shops from around the entire DC/MD/VA area are sponsoring the event and will be there including one of Reston Town Center's newest tenants – The Bike Lane.

They're expecting almost 1500 riders this year and the event should be the biggest one ever. Even DC Mayor Adrian Fenty is involved – he's the official ambassador of the 2009 National Capital Tour de Cure.

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Don’t Let Yourself be Bought by a Listing Agent

March 24, 2009 by Danilo Bogdanovic  
Filed under Seller Resources

bought

"I've decided to sell my house and am interviewing several real estate agents in my area to see which one can sell my home for the most amount possible."

Everything in that statement sounds ok, right?

The beginning and middle parts of that statement are totally fine. In fact, the middle – "interviewing several real estate agents" – is excellent because you should always interview 2 or 3 agents before you make a decision on which agent to hire.

But the last part of that statement – "sell my home for the most amount possible" – is a bit troubling because it screams of the seller setting themselves up to be "bought".

Here's what I mean and how it works…

Let's say that two of the agents say your home is worth right around $350,000 and the comps (recent similar sales) support that number. But one of the agents says it's worth $375,000. The agent claims that they can sell your house "for more" because they or their marketing plan "are better". You believe and hire them because you want the most amount of money possible for your house.

That, folks, is what we in the industry call "buying a listing" – an agent claiming they can sell a home for more than what it's really worth in order to get the listing. If you used the highest promised sales price as a deciding factor on choosing an agent, then you may have just been bought.

Let's dig deeper…

If your property is worth right around $350,000 and the agent says it's worth $375,000, there are only two reasons why the agent would say that:

  1. They have no clue about market values, market conditions or how to do their job
  2. They really know what your home is worth, but lied to you in order to get your listing

Regardless of which one it is, do you want an agent that exhibits either of those qualities representing your best interests and your $350,000 asset?!

Even deeper…

Guess what happens when your property is overpriced? It just sits on the market while your neighbor's/competitor's homes sell. The longer your home sits on the market, the more of a bad stigma it gets and the less you get for it. (Goes back to the age-old buyer question, "It's been on the market for a long time – what's wrong with it?")

The market value of your property is what it is – we as agents/brokers can not control that. Some of the things agent and brokers can control and part of the value we bring to the transaction is,

  • quality and depth of marketing in order to get the most number of ready, willing and able buyers noticing your property
  • quality and experience in negotiating with buyers and buyer's agents
  • quality and honest guidance - part of which includes pricing your property correctly

Focus on the value that an agent/broker can bring to the transaction, their level of skill and knowledge and whether you feel comfortable working with them. Don't let your pocket book, financial situation or greed cloud your judgement. If you follow this formula, you'll avoid a lot of stress, frustration, wasted time and lost money.

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Happy St. Patrick’s Day!

March 17, 2009 by Danilo Bogdanovic  
Filed under Uncategorized

Happy St Patrick's Day! 

Happy St. Patrick's Day! May we all be so lucky as this leprechaun and find a pot of gold!

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Possibly the Best Craig’s List Reply of All Time

March 16, 2009 by Danilo Bogdanovic  
Filed under Humor

Here's the posting…

What am I doing wrong?

Okay, I'm tired of beating around the bush. I'm a beautiful (spectacularly
beautiful) 25 year old girl. I'm articulate and classy. I'm not from New York .
I'm looking to get married to a guy who makes at least half a  million a year. I 
know how that sounds, but keep in mind that a million a year is  middle class in
New York City , so I don't think I'm overreaching at all.

Are there any guys who make 500K or more on this board? Any wives?  
Could you send me some tips? I dated a business man who makes average around  
200 – 250.   But that's where I seem to hit a roadblock. 250,000 won't get me to  
central park west. I know a woman in my yoga class who was married to an  
investment banker and lives in Tribeca, and she's not as pretty as I am, nor is she a  
great genius. So what is she doing right? How do I get to her level?

Here are my questions specifically:

- Where do you single rich men hang out? Give me specifics- bars, restaurants, gyms

- What are you looking for in a mate? Be honest guys, you won't hurt my feelings

- Is there an age range I should be targeting (I'm 25)? 

- Why are some of the women living lavish lifestyles on the upper east side so
plain? I've seen really 'plain jane' boring types who have nothing to offer
married to incredibly wealthy guys. I've seen drop dead gorgeous girls in 
singles bars in the east village. What's the story there?

- Jobs I should look out for? Everyone knows – lawyer, investment banker,
doctor. How much do those guys really make? And where do they hang  
out? Where do the hedge fund guys hang out?

- How you decide marriage vs. just a girlfriend? I am looking for  MARRIAGE ONLY 

Please hold your insults – I'm putting myself out there in an  honest way. Most
beautiful women are superficial; at least I'm being up front about it. I
wouldn't be searching for these kind of guys if I wasn't able to match them – in 
looks, culture, sophistication, and keeping a nice home and hearth.

*  it's NOT ok to contact this poster with services or other commercial interests

PostingID: 432279810

And the reply…

Dear Pers-431649184:

I read your posting with great interest and have thought  meaningfully about your
dilemma. I offer the following analysis of your predicament. Firstly, I'm not 
wasting your time, I qualify as a guy who fits your bill; that is I make more
than $500K per year. That said here's how I see it.

Your offer, from the prospective of a guy like me, is plain and simple a crappy 
business deal. Here's why. Cutting through all the B.S., what you suggest is a
simple trade: you bring your looks to the party and I bring my  money. Fine,
simple. But here's the rub, your looks will fade and my money will likely 
continue into perpetuity…in fact, it is very likely that my income increases
but it is an absolute certainty that you won't be getting any more beautiful!
So, in economic terms you are a depreciating asset and I am an earning asset.

Not only are you a depreciating asset, your depreciation accelerates! Let me
explain, you're 25 now and will likely stay pretty hot for the next 5 years, but
less so each year. Then the fade begins in earnest. By 35 stick a fork in you! 
So in Wall Street terms, we would call you a trading position, not a buy and
hold…hence the rub…marriage. It doesn't make good business sense to "buy
you" (which is what you're asking) so I'd rather lease. In case you think I'm 
being cruel, I would say the following. If my money were to go away, so would
you, so when your beauty fades I need an out. It's as simple as that. So a deal
that makes sense is dating, not marriage. 

Separately, I was taught early in my career about efficient markets. So, I
wonder why a girl as "articulate, classy and spectacularly beautiful" as you has
been unable to find your sugar daddy. I find it hard to believe that if you are
as gorgeous as you say you are that the $500K hasn't found you, if  
not only for a tryout.

By the way, you could always find a way to make your own money and  
then we wouldn't need to have this difficult conversation. 
With all that said, I must say you're going about it the right way.  
Classic "pump and dump."

I hope this is helpful, and if you want to enter into some sort of  
lease, let me know.

Hat tip to Chris over at The Real Hook

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Putting Loudoun’s Housing Market into Perspective

March 13, 2009 by Danilo Bogdanovic  
Filed under Statistics

You've seen the latest Loudoun County housing supply and demand numbers and statistics, but without anything to comapare them to, it's hard to put the Loudoun County housing market into perspective. So that's what we're going to do right now…

To recap, Loudoun County has 3.8 months worth of supply on the market and sales were up almost 50 percent in February 2009 over February 2008.

Now let's take a look at some other counties/cities in Virginia…

Prince William County

  • 5.22 months supply on the market
  • Sales were up 34 percent in February 2009 over February 2008

Stafford County

  • 7.38 months supply on the market
  • Sales were up 33 percent in February 2009 versus February 2008

Spotsylvania County

  • 10.23 months supply on the market
  • Sales were up 24 percent in February 2009 versus February 2008

Fredericksburg City

  • 13.08 months supply on the market
  • Sales were down 8.3 percent in February 2009 versus February 2008

Orange County

  • 16.65 months supply on the market
  • Sales were down 18 percent in February 2009 versus February 2008

In addition, a recent article in the Wall Street Journal talks about how Northern Virginia's housing market - Loudoun, Fairfax, Arlington, Alexandria - is ahead of DC's and MD's housing market including when it comes to a housing recovery.

Imagine seeing homes sit on the market almost 2 to 4+ times as long as they are now and seeing demand (sales) and prices still decreasing rapidly?

Loudoun's housing market doesn't look too shabby when you put it into perspective, does it…

Thank you to Sarah Stelmok for the statistics on neighboring areas.

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Northern Virginia Leads DC, MD in Housing Recovery

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The Northern Virginia area is ahead of Maryland and Washington, DC when it comes to the housing market (including a bottom and an eventual housing recovery). This is according to an article in the Wall Street Journal by Thomas A. Lawler, founding member of Lawler Economic & Housing Consulting, LLC.

In the article, Mr. Lawler cites statistics that show that Northern Virginia's housing market hit a peak and started its downturn ahead of the rest of the DC metro area. 

He also states that the amount of depreciation in home values that Northern Virginia has seen is greater than the rest of the DC metro area. In fact, he says that DC and MD have a ways to go before dropping as much as Northern Virginia already has.

Mr. Lawler explains one of the reasons for the difference in local markets:

One reason why reported sales prices have declined more rapidly and sales have rebounded more sharply in the northern Virginia area is that the area has seen a much greater increase in distressed sales — in part because Virginia is a “non-judicial” foreclosure state while Maryland is a “judicial” foreclosure state. The typical timeline from when a borrower stops payment to when the home is actually foreclosed on is longer in Maryland than in Virginia. As a result, the Maryland suburbs have a much larger overhang of loans that are currently in some stage of foreclosure than is the case in Northern Virginia…

Just goes to show that you can't even look at a regional area as a whole anymore – you need to look closely at the "hyper-local" real estate market you're in. What the mass media says about the U.S. housing market as a whole or even a large geographical area such the DC metro area doesn't always apply to you and your specific area.

P.S. Yes, I know…Mr. Lawler was senior VP for Fannie Mae through 2006 which is not necessarily a good thing for the resume right about now…but the statistics and his points are valid.

Related Articles

"Where are all the homes for buyers to choose from?!"

"Loudoun is a seller's market? Are you crazy?!"

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It’s Official – Metro Rail is Coming to Loudoun County

March 11, 2009 by Danilo Bogdanovic  
Filed under Loudoun County

Dulles Metro Rail phases

That's right…it's official. The Federal Government gave a formal commitment yesterday to bring the Silver Line of the Metro Rail out to Loudoun County.

Phase One – Tyson's Corner – should be completed by 2013. Phase Two – Reston/Dulles/Ashburn – should be completed by 2015. Total cost? $5.2 billion.

Here's a map showing the stops along the Silver Line (click on picture to enlarge):

Dulles Metrorail Project  

Though the end result of having the Silver Line come out to Ashburn will be great for the area, there will be some growing pains along the way…

…those who live, work or drive near the corridor also must focus on another reality: six years of debilitating construction that will further slow Northern Virginia's busiest thoroughfares. Although some light construction began months ago, the coming weeks and months will bring an entirely new level of din, dust and general havoc to McLean, Vienna, Tysons Corner and beyond.

Though those growing pains will be less than fun, I feel that they're a necessary evil to bring the rail and it's future benefits including less congestion, more businesses, jobs and additional tax revenue to the area.

Now that the the Dulles Metro Rail/Silver Line is official, I wonder if the Moorefield Station project will start moving forward…

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