What Happens if Loudoun Backs Out of the Dulles Metrorail Project?

Loudoun County is considering backing out of the Dulles Metrorail project. More specifically, Loudoun may back out of the last two planned stops on the Silver Line in Loudoun County- Route 606 and Route 772. If this happens, it will have a huge impact on Loudoun, its’ residents and home values.

Why is Loudoun County considering backing out of the Dulles Rail project?

• Loudoun officials want an above ground station at Dulles Airport far from the actual terminal versus MWAA’s more expensive $300 million underground station that drops passengers close to the main terminal.
• This additional cost is on top of the already $1 billion dollar increase in costs to the project. And costs could very well go up even more as the project moves forward.
• Loudoun is responsible for 4.6 percent of costs associated with the building of the project
• Due to the additional costs, tolls would rise to $6.75 (one way) with Federal financing and $10.75 (one way) without Federal financing

What happens to the Dulles Rail project and stations within Loudoun if Loudoun backs out?

• The last two stops on the Silver Line would be scrapped and the Metrorail would end at Dulles Airport
• Since the Dulles Airport station is in Loudoun County, Loudoun will still be responsible for the operation and maintenance of the airport station
• Parking at and around Dulles Airport would be affected – the proposed neighboring Route 606 Metrorail station would have provided parking garages with 6,000 parking spaces

The affect on Loudoun, its’ residents and home value if Loudoun back outs of the Dulles Rail project…

Developments well into (and even beyond) the planning and approval phases will be greatly scaled back if not scrapped altogether. We are talking about millions of dollars and thousands of man hours already spent only to be thrown away at the 11th hour.

We are also talking about Loudoun sending this message to Comstock, Claude Moore Foundation and other developers,
“Don’t take our word for anything. We may just change our minds at the last minute and leave you out to dry.”
This negative stigma will reputation will stick around Loudoun for many years to come. If you think that this may not affect you as a homeowner, think again…

The majority of Loudoun’s tax base comes from residential property taxes (aka homeowners). If the corporate/business tax base increases, the tax burden on homeowners would decrease. If the corporate/business tax base stays the same or goes down, the tax burden on homeowners will increase.

Furthermore, all of the cool developments, their amenities and positive affects on home values be no more. Just look at the affect metro had on Arlington back in the day and is having on Tyson’s and Reston today…

Once the metro came out to Arlington, property values went up. Arlington became a desirable place to live and has further prospered as an easily accessible area with developments and amenities galore.

Fast forward to Tyson’s and Reston today…property values in both areas started going up well before the rest of NoVA showed any signs of stabilization or recovery. I can give you countless examples of property values going up 10 to 30 percent over the last 18 months around the future Metrorail stations including roads and arteries to/from the Tyson’s and Reston stations. I highly doubt we would be seeing this type of appreciation without the metro.

Coincidence or not?

Is it mere coincidence or is thanks to the proposed metro stations at Route 606 and Route 772 that Brambleton, Loudoun Valley Estates, South Riding, Stone Ridge and other neighboring communities have seen sales go through the roof and values hold strong over the past 18 months?

Considering that every buyer I have come across looking in those areas over the last 2 years has mentioned the future metro stations as a reason for considering buying there, I’d say it’s definitely not a coincidence.

Now consider what would happen if Loudoun backed out of those stations.

I usually remain objective in my posts, but I’m interjecting my $0.02 this time…

- Yes, costs are important to consider. And yes, costs have skyrocketed. But you should have anticipated this if you’ve read even one U.S. history book in your lifetime.

- You should be looking hard for alternatives such as Federal financing/assistance rather than just thinking about scrapping the project.

- Consider the affects on the residents and overall reputation of Loudoun.

- Consider the good the proposed metro has had on the area already, its’ future positive impact and the negative impact it will have if its’ scrapped.

- Think long term rather than just tomorrow.

It would be a shame to see Loudoun County back out of the Dulles Rail project – for everyone’s sake. I hope Loudoun County can get it together and move forward rather than backward.

 

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Sub-$300K Loudoun Housing Market Remains Hot

The $300K or less housing market in Loudoun County continues to be hot. Properties in this price point are often selling within days and buyers are rushing to see the properties and put an offer in before they’re gone. For sellers, this a good thing. For home buyers, not so much.

Buyers

Just ask any of my first time home buyers or investors looking to pick up a property in that price point and you’ll see their facial expression change instantly. Why? Becuase the process usually goes something like this…

• The property is typically a short-sale or foreclosure
• The asking price is below market value so that the seller/bank will get an offer as quickly as possible
• Multiple offers are received on the property within 48 to 72 hours – sometimes up to 10+ offers
• Many of these offers are cash offers from investors with no contingencies and able to settle within 2 weeks
• Many of the offers are for more than the asking price because the seller/bank has purposefully priced the property below what’s it’s really worth
• Even though your offer (with financing) may be higher in price, the seller may go with a lower priced, all-cash offer because it’s less hassle with a higher chance of closing

Does this mean that first time home buyers in Loudoun County can’t compete with investors?

No. It means that road will be tough and you will need to have a lot patience. You will most likely write several offers on several different properties before your offer gets chosen. Despite the road being tough, every first time home buyer and investor I have worked with in this price point, both in Loudoun County and the rest of Northern VA has eventually found and bought a home that they love and that works for them.

Does this mean that investors will drive first time home buyers with financing out of the market?

Yes and no. Yes because I have heard from other agents that their first time home buyers have either given up from frustration or are waiting for the market to become less hot and cut throat before getting into it. But there are still plenty of first time home buyers out there that are patient and have prepared themselves well for this market through research and/or through their Buyer’s Agent.

Sellers

• There is a lot of demand for properties in the sub-$300K price range (aka lots of buyers looking at your house)
• Even if you’re house needs work, if you price it accordingly, buyers and investors will buy it in its’ current condition
• If you price and market your property correctly, you will have an offer, if not several offers in your hands within days
• If you have multiple offers, you are able to pick the best one that fits your specific situation and needs rather than picking the first one that comes through

Does this mean that sellers can price their property for more than market value and get away with it?

No. Sellers should be confident and smart, not greedy. Buyers are smart – they know what market values are like whether it be from their own research or their Buyer’s Agent providing them with comps (aka the sales price of similar homes that have sold in the same community within the past 90 days). Buyers would rather pass on an over priced property and wait for a properly priced property than spend more on a property than what its’ worth.

Does this mean that sellers should accept an all-cash offer rather than one with financing?

Not necessarily. Seller should always look at the big picture and the small details of every offer. In most situations, an all-cash offer is most desirable. But not every situation nor every all-cash offer is the same. Sellers and their Listing Agent should discuss the pros and cons of each and every offer before making a final decision on which one to accept.

Need more info or a list of homes for sale in the sub-$300K market? Contact me via email or on my cell and I’ll be glad to help.