Ashburn Housing Market Update

Here’s a look at what’s going on with the Ashburn housing market (20147 and 20148 zip codes)…

Ashburn Median Price

After it’s most recent drop from October 2008 through March 2009, the median price for single family and town homes in Ashburn has ticked up over the past two months.

Condos in Ashburn aren’t showing an uptick in median price, but they have plateaued.

Ashburn Inventory

The number of homes for sale in Ashburn continued it’s downward trend. We saw an uptick during the “spring market”, but inventory is either plateauing or on the way down once again. A downward trend should continue through the summer months because many sellers think that the summer is not a good time to put their homes on the market.

Ashburn Housing Market Overview

As inventory diminishes and buyer demand increases (thanks to lower prices, historically low rates, $8K tax credit, etc), we’re seeing the market stabilize a bit. We’re even seeing pockets of Ashburn with slight price appreciation due such low inventory and increased buyer demand.

Homes that are priced well are getting a lot of foot traffic and a purchase offer within 1 to 3 weeks on the market. Homes priced slightly below (or way below as is the case with many bank-owned and short-sale properties) are getting multiple offers and are bidding up over asking price within days of hitting the market.

Unless the inventory or rates increase (or some huge economic news rattles the entire nation), we’ll see these trends and this type of market continue through at least the summer.

Ashburn Real Estate Market Statistics - October 2008

Here are the October 2008 statistics for the Ashburn, Virginia real estate market. The statistics cover supply (new listings) and demand (solds). To make it easier, I broke it down by the two Ashburn zip codes, 20147 and 20148.

Ashburn - 20147

The 20147 zip code includes areas such as Ashburn Farm, Ashburn Village, Belmont Country Club, Belmont Greene and Belmont Ridge…

   

The number of new listings in October '08 was slightly lower than in September '08 and significantly lower than in October '07. This shows that the trend of a diminishing inventory in Ashburn continues.

The number of properties that sold (went under contract) in October '08 was lower than the previous month, but was significantly higher than the previous year.

Ashburn - 20148

The 20148 zip code includes areas such as Loudoun Parkway Center, Broadlands and Brambleton…

 

The number of new listings in October '08 was slightly lower than in September '08 and significantly lower than in October '07. This also goes along with the trend of a diminishing inventory throughout Ashburn.

The number of properties that sold (went under contract) in October '08 was only half that of the previous month and lower than the previous year. This is not a good sign for the 20148 real estate market and I hope to see buyer demand increase this month and moving forward.

Overall, the Ashburn market is showing mixed signals. The 20147 zip code shows continuing of improvement while the 20148 zip code's low buyer demand is not a good sign.

Kirkpatrick’s Pub in Ashburn and Haymarket Closing Today

According to staff I spoke with last night, both Kirkpatrick's Pub locations - Ashburn Village in Ashburn and Dominion Valley Estates in Haymarket - are closing their doors for good tonight. After years of being a popular spot to eat, drink and socialize in Ashburn Village including poker nights and sports events, Kirkpatrick's is done.

The staff said that only a few days notice was given and the reason for shutting down is that the owner wasn't making enough money to stay afloat. It's unfortunate that the employees will have to scramble to find a new job on such short notice, but that's the restaurant business. (Years ago, I worked for a restaurant that just put chains on the front doors without giving their staff any notice whatsoever so a few days notice isn't that bad relatively speaking)

Sad to see Kirkpatrick's or any local business fail after so many years.

***UPDATE: Kirkpatrick's filed bankruptcy and is auctioning/selling off their assets for around $300K. If anyone is interested in buying up a restaurant at a deep discount, here's your chance.Btw, heard that rent there is around $10K per month for the space.

Brambleton Fall Fest Coming Up On October 25 (MOVED TO 10/26)

UPDATE: The Brambleton Community Association just notified me that they're moving the Fall Festival to Sunday, October 26 due to a call for rain all day Saturday and Saturday night.

The Brambleton Community Association is having a fall festival at the Brambleton Town Center and Legacy Park on Saturday, October 25 from 2 to 7 pm. Festivities include live music,contests, numerous activites for the kids, food, drinks and more.

Live music at the Brambleton Fall Fest includes The Paul Green School of Rock at 2pm, the Rocknoceros at 4pm and The Groove at 5pm.

Contests include a "Slice of the Sweet Life in Brambleton" pie baking contest as well as a pumpkin carving contest.

There will be plenty of food and drinks from vendors such as Asian Spice Cafe, Edibles Incredibles Dessert, Wings & Things and the Brambleton Snack Shack. And yes…there will be beer!

There are plenty of activities just for the kids. Here's a sample list:

• Face painting
• Clown balloonist
• Big Top kiddie area
• Rock wall
• Spider Zone and slide
• Bumper cars
• Hay bale maze
• Mini pirate ship
• Free Pony Rides
• World sports challenge
• Halloween Train Ride (either “Spooky” or “Not-So-Spooky”)

There will also be a "Home and Garden Marketplace." And INOVA Loudoun Medical Health Unit will be giving out flu shots.

Admission to the Brambleton Fall Fest is free for adults and children 2 and under; $7 for children ages 3 to 18.

If you'd like more information about the Brambleton Fall Fest, click here.

Ashburn Real Estate Market Statistics (20147, 20148) - September 2008

Here are the September 2008 statistics for the Ashburn real estate market (20147 and 20148 zip codes):

Ashburn - 20147 - September 2008

• New listings = 86. This is an 11 percent decrease in new inventory as compared to September 2007
• Solds (Under Contract) = 71. This is a 40 percent increase in buyer demand as compared to September 2007

Ashburn - 20148 - September 2008

• New listings = 31. This is a 9 percent decrease in new inventory as compared to September 2007
• Solds (Under Contract) = 31. This is a 258 percent increase in buyer demand as compared to September 2007

Though buyer demand increased significantly year-over-year in the 20147 zip code of Ashburn, it really jumped in the 20148 zip code. In fact, the 20148 zip code had the same number of sales last month as it did new listings (31).

These stats confirm what's being felt on the "street" - there are less properties to choose from and more buyers fighting for the same property. This is especially true with properties in the lower price brackets and those that are great deals. This bodes well for sellers and the market as a whole though it's not news most buyers want to hear.

Related Articles

Sterling Real Estate Market Statistics (20164, 20165, 20166) - September 2008

Leesburg Real Estate Market Statistics (20175, 20176) - September 2008

No "Summer Slump" For Loudoun County Real Estate In 2008

Loudoun County Real Estate Market Statistics - 1st Half 2008 vs 2007

Loudoun Real Estate Inventory Levels Well Below National Average

20148 Beats 20147 In Ashburn Real Estate Market Conditions Bout

Today’s real estate market conditions bout is between Ashburn’s 20147 and 20148 zip codes and involves inventory and buyer demand statistics. In one corner is the 20147 zip code, which includes areas such as Ashburn Village, Ashburn Farm and Belmont Country Club. In the other corner is the 20148 zip code of Ashburn, which includes areas such as Broadlands, Brambleton and Loudoun Valley Estates.

Here’s how the two Ashburn zip codes stacked up against each other…

20147 zip code:

• The number of new listings that came on the market in 2008 (1/1-6/9) is 743 versus 830 during the same period 2007. That’s a decrease of 11 percent.
• The number of homes that sold in 2008 (1/1-6/9) is 435 versus 489 during the same period in 2007. That’s a decrease of 11 percent.

20148 zip code:

• The number of new listings that came on the market in 2008 YTD is 320 versus 315 during the same period 2007. That’s an increase of 1 percent (though we can just call it even).
• The number of homes that sold in 2008 YTD is 184 versus 157 during the same period in 2007. That’s a increase of 15 percent.

Though the 20147 zip code of Ashburn saw inventory decrease by 11 percent, buyer demand decrease by the same rate as well.

The 20148 zip code of Ashburn saw inventory stay pretty much the same, but buyer demand increased by 15 precent.

And the winner is…

In a split decision, Ashburn’s 20148 zip code was declared the winner of today’s real estate market conditions match-up!

A rematch is in the works for sometime next month. I’ll keep you posted.

$1M+ Homes In Ashburn and Leesburg; A Different Market Altogether

The $1M+ home market in Ashburn and Leesburg is a tough one (at least for sellers) and is much different than the rest of the real estate market in Loudoun County. At this price point, the buyer pool is much smaller. And the amount of inventory heavily outweighs the amount of demand making it much more a buyer’s market then the lower price brackets.

Let’s look at the numbers:

Ashburn

• There are currently 18 properties for sale for $1M or more
• There is only $1M+ property currently under contract
• There have only been five $1M+ properties sell within the last 12 months
• Based on the demand over the last year, there is a 36 month supply of $1M+ properties

Leesburg

• There are currently 60 properties for sale $1M or more
• There are three $1M+ properties currently under contract
• There have been thirty-four $1M+ properties sell within the last 12 months
• Based on the demand over the last year, there is a 20.5 month supply of $1M+ properties

The most important statistic is the number of months supply. Ashburn and Leesburg have a 36 month and 20.5 month (respectively) supply of $1M+ properties, while Loudoun County as a whole has a 7.6 month supply. That’s quite a difference.

If you’re a buyer in the $1M+ price range, you have the pick of the litter at the moment. If you’re a seller of a $1M+ property, it’s time to get aggressive if you want to sell your property.

AOL Layoffs Increased to 4000

Some of the employees at AOL were informed today that the total number of layoffs for AOL was going to be 4000.  This is double the 2000 that was announced by the CEO last week and reported by most news organizations.  All the layoffs that will affect employees at the Dulles campus were started on Monday and will be be completed by Tuesday at 11am.

Many of the AOLers will be gathering throughout the day at Clydes in Broadlands.  Rumor has it that management has decided to open at 9:30am instead of the usual 11am on Tuesday to accomodate the AOL employees that want to commisserate with each other.

Further Reading:

A Day at AOL - Layoff Roundup by Tammi Marcoullier at Living in LoCo/LoudounExtra.com/The Washington Post

How Will AOL’s Massive Layoffs Affect Loudoun County Real Estate - Loudoun Stats

"AOL’s Falco Says 2000 Layoffs" (perhaps he left out a few) by Tammy Marcoullier - Living In LoCo/The Washington Post

Loudoun County Foreclosure/Bank Owned Property Update

As of this morning, the percentage of properties for sale that are in foreclosure/bank owned in Loudoun County, specifically Ashburn, Sterling and Leesburg is:

• Ashburn - 5 percent
• Sterling - 11 percent
• Leesburg - 11 percent

This is an increase over last month and the highest in several years.

One reason why the perecentage is increasing is because we’re looking at the active properties. More new foreclosures are coming on the market than are selling.

These bank owned foreclosures are not selling nearly as quickly as the other properties because they are not yet priced at a point that makes them very appealing to investors or home buyers. Once you factor in what it would cost to bring them up to the standards of comparable properties, you’re just below or at the same total cost. The difference is that you can just buy a move-in condition property and save yourself the time and hassle of getting contractors out to fix it.

Now, as far as a rental investment, there are some that are appealing. With the amount of rent you can bring in based on the current rental market along with the price point and the monthly payment based on a 20 percent down investor loan, you would break even if not have positive cash flow. But once again, we go back to having to spend the time and energy to fix it up along with at least one if not two months worth of carrying costs (PITI and HOA dues). It seems that most investors that are in it for the long haul (rentals) are not willing to spend this kind of time and energy.

The reason why these foreclosures are still not priced aggressively enough is that the banks have not been beat up enough to drop the price to where the market will absorb them. Once they carry these properties for an extended period of time and the number of foreclosure they have goes up even more, they may start to realize that they need to adjust the prices in order to get the properties off their books.

Time will soon start taking its toll on banks though. We’ll start seeing foreclosures/bank owned properties coming down in price and banks will start accepting offers that they’re currently rejecting because they’re "too low".