State of the Loudoun County Housing Market

Wondering what the current state of the Loudoun County housing market is and where it’s trending? Here’s a detailed breakdown…

Loudoun County Home Buyer Activity Up

As you can see in the graph below, the average number of homes that go under contract each month in Loudoun County has been around 400 for the last half of 2010. But, starting January 2011, the number of homes going under contract increased dramatically and has been averaging just below 600 per month for the past 4 months. This means that buyers are out in greater force and actively buying properties – almost 50 percent more this year than they were the last half of 2010.

Loudoun County Housing Inventory Up…Down…Up

The number of active listings (homes for sale) in Loudoun County makes me think of the Grizzly in King’s Dominion. After hitting 1742 in September 2010, the number of active listings dropped quickly to a mere 1200-something in December, January and February (that’s a ridiculously low amount). But then it climbed quickly and is back up to 1696 as of June 2011. The increase is a trend that points away from a seller’s market, but don’t be fooled…1700 is still considered low when it comes to the total number of homes for sale in all of Loudoun County.

Loudoun County Median Sales Price Up

While the median home price in Loudoun County took another dip in the last half of 2010, it’s been on the rise in 2011. After going down in the last half of 2010 and hitting a low of $317,500 in January 2011, the median sales price hit $410,000 in June 2011. That’s almost a $100K/32% increase!

Loudoun County Average Days On Market Down

After hitting an average of only 49 days, the average days on market in Loudoun County went up to 86 (which is still not too shabby) in February 2011. Since then, the average days on market has dropped back down to 60. That’s only 2 months and is an important technical indicator that points to a seller’s market (though we need to keep an eye on the increase in active listings which may soon start to put upward pressure on the average days on market).

These statistics reinforce what my clients, myself and other active agents have been seeing on the ground…

• More buyers and investors are out buying a home or investment property this year than last year
• The extremely low interest rates have made a positive impact on the market
• Inventory is down so finding the right home for a buyer takes longer now than it did last year (patience is a virtue)
• Sellers that price, market and present their homes correctly are getting offers sooner than they would have last year
• Sellers have more negotiating power this year than last year (while buyers have less)
• Prices are higher today than they were last year (supply vs demand)

If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home in Loudoun County or would like to know what the market is like in your specific community, click here to contact me – I would happy to provide you with a free hyper-local market analysis and CMA.

River Creek Real Estate Market Update – Single Family Homes

Here’s the latest on the single family home real estate market in River Creek (Loudoun County)…

Overview

The overall single family home real estate market in River Creek is balanced – neither a seller’s nor buyer’s market. Buyer activity is up (though it’s not a buyer’s market by any means) and homes are selling in a timely manner if they are priced, marketed and presented correctly.

If you are a River Creek buyer, you will see everything from overpriced to underpriced single family homes on the market. Have your Buyer’s Agent give you the comps on any properties you’re interested in so you know how the asking price compares to current market value. If a property is at or below market value, don’t expect to “steal” the property from under the seller. If the property is underpriced by a significant amount, expect to battle it out with other buyers’ offers (yes, even in the $1M+ price point).

If you are a River Creek seller, you don’t have an overabundance of competition, but you still have competition. If you price, market and present your property correctly, you will have buyers come through and an offer in your hands in a timely manner. If you are selling your house “short” and under price it to get an offer quickly, you may very well see multiple offers on the property.

Numbers/Statistics

The number of single family homes listed for sale 2011 YTD is up 7.5% from this time last year. Not so good for sellers, but good for buyers because they have more choices. But, in the end, this stat is washed out because…

The number of single family homes sold 2011 YTD is up 28% from this time last year. This increase is much higher than the increase in homes listed which is why it washes out the previous stat. This is great news for sellers because there is more demand and helps with market values. For buyers, it means that there are more buyers actively buying properties in River Creek and you may have to face some of them in competition for the same property.

The average number of single family homes that sell each month 2011 YTD is 3.13. This is a 28% increase over this time last year (2.26 per month average). More activity in the River Creek single family home market is good news for sellers and home owners. For buyers…see the paragraph above.

The current number of active single family homes in River Creek is 21. Based on the absorption rate (3.13 per month), there is a 6.71 month supply of single family homes in River Creek. Generally speaking, anything over a 4 month supply is considered a “soft/buyer’s market”. But considering the price point, 6.71 shows a balanced market. The reason for this is because the higher the price point, the longer the average days on market and months supply of inventory.

Summary

The single family home real estate market in River Creek continues to show increased buyer activity and is considered to be a “balanced market”. Though sellers will be happy about this, some buyers may not. But remember buyers…once you move in and become a River Creek home owner, you’re going to want the exact same thing you dreaded as a buyer – a strengthening real estate market in River Creek rather than a weakening one.

If you would like more information about the real estate market in River Creek or are interested in selling or buying in River Creek, click here to contact me.

Loudoun County Housing Inventory and Days On Market

Let’s take a look at Loudoun County’s housing inventory and average days on market (DOM). This is important to know because it gives you a sense of how to negotiate as a buyer and how to position your property as a seller.

Loudoun County inventory – new and active listings

There are just under 1500 active listings in Loudoun County, which is on the low side. To give you some comparison points…active listings hit a decade-low 1087 in December 2009 (seller’s market and values went up). And active listings hit an all time high of 4659 in the summer of 2006 (that’s when everything really hit the fan, prices started tanking and it was a buyer’s market).

Note: Yes, inventory has risen in the recent weeks. But that’s a yearly/seasonal thing called the “Spring market” when sellers believe they can get the most for their homes and put their home on the market.

Loudoun County average Days On Market (DOM)

The general rule of thumb in this area has been that when DOM goes above 4 months (120+ days), it signals a buyer’s market. If DOM is below 3 months (<90 days), it signals a a seller’s market. Right in between 90 and 120 days typically signals a balanced market. As you can see, DOM is below 80 and was even as low as 40 for a while there.

What does all of this mean?

For home owners that are able to sell their home at its’ present value, the market is on your side. DOM and inventory are low, two things that bode well for sellers.

For buyers, it means that your choice of homes is limited. In addition, you’ll see a lot of competition on the current homes on the market and even stiffer competition (aka multiple offers) on the homes that are priced very well and a great value.

Even though the signs point to a sellers’ market (and recovery), don’t get overly excited. Among other things, there is a lot of shadow foreclosure inventory to still get through and lending guidelines are making it harder and more expensive for consumers to get financing.

If you would like statistics about a specific town or community within Loudoun County, don’t hesitate to contact me.

Washington, DC Metro Area Rental Rates Rising

Rental rates in the Washington, DC metro area (including Northern VA and MD) are rising. They’ve risen so much that the Washington, DC metro area came in 9th in the list of metro areas in the U.S. with the greatest increase in rental rates.

Here’s the list in order…

1. Greenville, SC (+11.2%; $669 average monthly rent)
2. Chattanooga, TN (+10.4%; $726 average monthly rent)
3. Savannah, GA (+8.4%; $866 average monthly rent)
4. Portland, OR (+8.1%; $875 average monthly rent)
5. San Jose, CA (+8.0%; $1,716 average monthly rent)
6. Nashville, TN (+8.0%; $786 average monthly rent)
7. Tacoma, WA (+8.0%; $900 average monthly rent)
8. Denver, CO (+7.5%; $873 average monthly rent)
9. Washington, DC (+7.4%; $1,473 average monthly rent)
10. Raleigh, NC (+7.4%; $785 average monthly rent)

Good for landlords and investors

This is good news if you’re a landlord/investor because it’s more money in your pocket and a higher return on your rental property investment. For those that are renting their property out because they are upside down, but don’t want to or can’t do a short-sale, the rental rate may soon able to cover your mortgage rather than you losing money every month.

Not good for renters

This is not good news for renters. It means more money and less negotiating power when getting a rental. For several years now, rental rates have been very low compared to mortgage amounts for the same property making renting a very attractive prospect. But that’s starting to change. For those on the fence about renting or buying, you want to start explore your options when it comes to buying. Rental rates are on the way up yet, prices are at realistic levels and mortgage rates are still very low (for the moment).

Note: This figure is for the general DC metro area – each specific area and subdivision is different. Contact me to find out what the rental market is like in your specific area or the area you’re looking to rent in.

H/T Bill Lublin

Loudoun County Housing Inventory Cause for Caution

After a year of steadily diminishing housing inventory throughout Loudoun County, inventory has spiked over the last 2 months. After dropping almost 30 percent from the beginning of May 2009 to the middle of April 2010, inventory has spiked up almost 10 percent in a matter of a few weeks…

More Loudoun County housing inventory statistics…

• The number of new listings coming on the market in March 2010 was 50 percent higher than in March 2009 (1092 versus 727)
• The number of new listings coming on the market in April 2010 was 32 percent higher than in April 2009 (994 versus 752).

The increase in new listings and overall inventory may be a very welcome thing if you ask buyers. Most buyers can’t seem to find a home that meets their needs or they’re competing against multiple offers every time they do.

But if you’re a seller, that’s a different story. More homes on the market means more competition, lower selling prices and increased days on market.

Loudoun County housing inventory and the rate of new listings coming on the market is something we all need to keep our eyes on because if inventory continues to go up AND interest rates go up this summer as everyone is saying they will, the market will soften.

Loudoun/Northern Virginia Housing Market Conditions per Price Range

The question I get asked most often is, “How’s the Loudoun/Northern Virginia housing market?” Today’s housing market conditions do not allow for one, general correct answer. For the purpose of giving you a good, general idea of the Northern Virginia* housing market conditions, I’m going to break it down by price range – you choose the price range you fit into.

*I am referring to all of Northern Virginia, which includes Loudoun, Prince William and Fairfax counties (including Arlington, Falls Church, Alexandria, etc)

Note: If you would like to know what the specific housing market conditions are within your community or the area you are interested in buying within, click here to contact me so I can provide you with the specific details and statistics.

Less than $150K

• This is probably the most competitive price range to be in. The majority of properties in this price range can be found in Prince William County
• Most of the properties you’ll find in this price point are foreclosure/bank-owned and short-sale properties. But this price range is also very popular with investors so you’ll see investor flips/rehab properties on the market
• A buyer I’m currently working with had to go through countless properties and compete against over 50 offers before finally getting their offer accepted on one. One reason is because a significant amount of the offers being placed on properties at this price point are all-cash offers with no contingencies whatsoever. Trying to compete against cash offers with FHA, VA and even conventional financing offers is extremely tough – though it definitely can be done
• Properties in this price point that are priced at or below market value typically receive multiple offers within a matter of days so buyers have to jump on them as soon as they hit the market
• I have seen properties in this price range in some areas sell for 10 to 20+ percent more than they did at the beginning of 2009
• If you’re a buyer, expect to see 5, 10, 15+ offers on well-priced properties. But don’t be scared or intimidated by that – just make sure you have some extra patience and are ready to jump on a property you like as soon as it hits the market. And if you don’t get it, don’t be too down – it happens a lot at this price point. You have to just keep plugging along
• If you’re a seller in this price point, you’re sitting pretty and can expect an offer quickly if you’re priced correctly

$150K to $350K

• This is also a very competitive price range to be in. Properties in this price range are a mixture of foreclosure/bank-owned properties, short-sales and traditional resales
• The type of properties in this price range depends on how close or far you get away from Washington, DC. The closer you are to DC, the smaller and/or older of a property you typically get
• Cash offers are also becoming more common in this price range though not as much as in the sub$150K price point
• I have seen properties in this price range in some areas sell for 10+ percent more than they did at the beginning of 2009
• As a buyer, expect to compete against many other offers especially on properties priced at or below market value
• As a seller, you’re still sitting pretty as long as you price your property correctly

$350K to $500K

• This price range is also competitive especially within the Beltway. Properties in this price range are also a mixture of foreclosure/bank-owned properties, short-sales and traditional resales
• Though there are fewer instances of cash offers in this price range, they’re still out there. Though you may not be competing against 10+ offers as is common in the lower price points, I’m still seeing a handful of offers on well priced properties
• I have noticed values in this price range remain steady with some areas showing a slight increase in values
• As a buyer, expect to compete against other buyers on well-priced properties. You should be aggressive and jump on a property that interests you as soon as it hits the market
• As a seller, you’re still in a price range that has a decent amount of buyers in it. But don’t get greedy because of that fact – you still have to market and price your property correctly

$500K to $700K

• This price point puts the majority of buyers into the ‘”jumbo” loan/financing category (financing over $417K), which makes for a smaller number of buyers. The reason why is because it’s harder and more expensive to secure “jumbo” financing these days. Fewer buyers means less competition though there are still so few properties on the market that it’s still competitive
• Nevertheless, buyers are out there. A recent listing of mine in Broadlands has many buyers come through as soon as it hit the market and it the sellers received and accepted an offer within 10 days of being on the market
• Most of the properties in this price range are short-sales and traditional resales though you may see a foreclosure/bank-owned property here and there
• Though cash offers are rare at this price point, they’re still out there. I had a buyer who put 20 percent down, use conventional financing and offer the highest amount of all the offers lose to a lower priced, all cash, non-contingent offer
• I have seen values in this price range remain relatively steady since 1/1/09
• If you’re a buyer, you still have to be aggressive on finding and buying a property in this price range. But it’s definitely not as crazy as the sub-$350K range
• If you’re a seller, make sure you’re aware of your competition/other homes on the market so that you price your property correctly and adjust to comps and new properties as they come on the market. The higher the price range, the more important it is to have an experienced and knowledgeable Listing Agent working for you

$700K to $900K

• This is where the pendulum starts to swing the other way a bit (generally speaking). Properties in this price range tend to stay on the market longer and have fewer buyers competing for them. Nevertheless, if the property is priced at or below market value, buyers will come out from everywhere
• For example, there was a foreclosure/bank-owned “McMansion” in Fairfax listed just last month that was priced at $722K. This was an incredibly attractive price because the property was worth well over $800K. A buyer I’m working with offered $800K using conventional financing with a down payment of 30 percent. Their offer was not chosen because the winning offer was…take a guess…all cash, non-contingent. (Yes, someone paid $800K+ cash for a house)
• The example I just gave is not isolated to Fairfax – it’s happening in Loudoun and across Northern Virginia
• I have seen values in this price point remain steady or go down since 1/1/09 depending on location and how hard the particular community has been hit with foreclosures and short-sales
• As a buyer, this price point can be good and bad. It’s good because the market is not as crazy as the lower price points. But it’s bad because there is so little inventory on the market to choose from. You may have to wait weeks or even a few months before a property that fits your criteria. Some of my buyers have made adjustments to their criteria so they can have more properties to choose from
• As a seller, price and marketing are key in this price range. Make sure your Listing Agent is knowledgeable and is on top of your local market

$900K+

• This is the least competitive price range especially in Loudoun County. Properties in this price range in Loudoun have been known to be on the market for months and months. As you get closer to DC, the average days on market is less, but still much higher than lower price points
• Some of the properties in this price range are foreclosure/bank-owned properties, but most are short-sales and traditional resales
• This price range is still showing signs of weakness and depreciation especially the farther you get from DC
• If you’re a buyer, you’re in a good position in this price range. There are few buyers that are in the market for a $900K property and a fairly decent amount of inventory for you to choose from, including new construction
• If you’re a seller, you’ve got an uphill battle especially in Loudoun County. Be patient and realistic when selling your home. Even more so than in any other price range, make sure you have a knowledgeable and aggressive Listing Agent who will market your property correctly and will price it where it should be to get an offer

Please remember that these are general market conditions. To find out what the housing market conditions are within your community or the area you are interested in buying within, click here to contact me so I can provide you with the specific details and statistics.

The Latest Loudoun County Housing Inventory Statistics

The number of homes for sale in Loudoun County (and the entire DC metro area) is definitely either down or trending down. Let’s look at the following charts showing inventory levels of single family homes and town homes in the Sterling, Ashburn, Leesburg and South Riding/Chantilly areas:

(Note: These are new interactive flash charts – feel free to play around with them, move the slider around, etc., and let me know what you think)

Sterling

Ashburn

Leesburg

South Riding/Chantilly

Home Buyer Demand, Sales Up Across Loudoun and Fairfax County

Home buyer demand/sales in Loudoun County were up 11 percent in the 3rd quarter of 2009 over the 3rd quarter 2008. And it’s up 53 percent over 2007. (Buyer demand is defined by the number of homes that go under contract during a set time period)

Fairfax County had an 18 percent increase in home buyer demand/sales in the 3rd quarter 2009 over 2008. And it’s up 62 percent over 2007.

Why the increase?

1. Lower prices – prices have come down considerably since the peak making it more affordable and appealing for home buyers. And the less expensive something is, the more people can afford it
2. Low interest rates – interest rates hit historical lows and are still very low. Lower interest rate = greater purchasing power
3. Programs/benefits – Programs such as the $8000 first-time home buyer federal tax credit has helped spark demand (click here for more info on first-time home buyer tax credit). I’ve worked with more first-time home buyers this year than in any of the last 6 years (and it’s only October). Other programs such as the Freddie Mac HomeSteps SmartBuy program have also helped increased demand (click here for more info on Smartbuy program)

Will it continue?

Maybe. If rates remain steady and/or the tax credit get renewed or a similar program come out, then we’ll probably see home buyer demand steady or continue increasing (though I don’t think there’s room for too much more increase in buyer demand).

Maybe not. If rates creep up and/or the first-time home buyer federal tax credit not be renewed and/or (more) bad economic news come out, we may see buyer demand taper off or even decrease.

Who wins?

The buyers that purchased a home at a much lower price than years prior and at a low interest rate while taking advantage of the first-time home buyer federal tax credit made out the best.

Sellers came in at a close second – increased demand and very low inventory make for a winning combination when selling your home.

Leesburg Single Family Home Median Price up $35K

The median price of single family homes in Leesburg (20175 and 20176 zip codes) has gone up $35K since April. With inventory down 33 percent since 9/08 and buyer demand up, median prices have gone up. You can feel the effect of this in the housing market conditions in the area – Buyers have less inventory to choose from and more competition from other buyers while sellers are seeing more buyers coming through and competing for their property (if priced correctly) than since 2005.

Leesburg Single Family Home Median Price – up $35K

Leesburg Single Family Home Inventory – down 33 percent

Ashburn Single Family Home Median Price Up $20K

The median price of single family homes in Ashburn (20147 and 20148 zip codes) has gone up almost $20K since April. This is mainly due to less inventory on the market and more buyers purchasing properties – supply vs demand. We’re currently seeing a plateau in median prices, but that’s probably due to a typical slowdown in buyer demand over the summer months.

Ashburn Single Family Home Median Price – up $20K since April

Ashburn Single Family Home Inventory – down 30 percent since 9/08

P.S. Check back on Tuesday for Leesburg’s median price and inventory levels.

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