Sterling Housing Market Update

Here’s a look at what’s going on with the Sterling housing market (all zip codes)…

Sterling Median Price

The median price has been falling in Sterling since the market turned until about March of this year. Over the past rew months, the median price has spiked significantly (by almost $100,000).

Sterling Inventory

Inventory of single family and town homes in Sterling has dropped by 60 percent since 2007 and 56 percent since this time last year. The condo inventory in Sterling has dropped by 45 percent since this time last year. This is most significant decrease of inventory out of any large town in Loudoun County.

Sterling Housing Market Overview

The huge drop in inventory throughout Sterling along with a huge increase in buyer demand has lead to a huge shift in the housing market in Sterling. Sterling has some of the lowest price points in Loudoun and lots of foreclosure and short-sale activity making it extremely attractive to first-time home buyers and investors. We’re even seeing areas of Sterling with slight to substantial recent price appreciation.

Homes that are priced well are getting a lot of traffic and a purchase offer within 1 to 2 weeks on the market. Homes priced slightly below (or way below as is the case with many bank-owned and short-sale properties) are getting multiple offers (5, 10, 15+ offers) and are bidding up over asking price within days, if not hours of hitting the market.

We’re seeing slight signs of the inventory leveling out. Unless it levels out, we’ll most likely see median prices continue their upward trend and lots of multiple offers on properties well into the summer.

Sterling Real Estate Market Statistics - October 2008

Here are the October 2008 statistics for the Sterling, Virginia real estate market. The statistics cover supply (new listings) and demand (solds). I broke it down by the three Sterling zip codes, 20164, 20165 and 20166.

Sterling 20164

The 20164 zip code includes areas such as Sterling Park and Sugarland Run…

   

The number of new listings in October '08 was down about 20 percent from September '08 and down over 35 percent year-over-year. This is a great sign for the foreclosure-beaten-and-battered Sterling Park and Sugarland Run areas.

The number of properties that sold (went under contract) in October '08 was lower than the previous month, but was well over double that of the previous year. Though the year-over-year numbers are great, I hope that the down-tick in October buyer demand is only temporary.

Sterling 20165

The 20165 zip code includes areas such as Countryside, Potomac Lakes, Great Falls Chase and Lowes Island…

 

The number of new listings in October '08 was about 10 percent lower than September '08 and much lower than in October '07. 

The number of properties that sold (went under contract) in October '08 was greater than the previous month as well as the previous year. These are exactly the type of statistics you want to see if you're looking for a real estate market to stabilize and rebound.

Sterling 20166

The 20166 zip code includes areas such as Dominion Station, Collonade at Dulles, Parkside at Dulles and Peace Plantation…

The number of new listings was higher in October '08 than in September '08, but lower than in October '07. 

The number of properties that sold (went under contract) in October '08 was greater than the previous month as well as the previous year.

Though 20166 saw an increase in new listings, the increase in buyer demand more than made up for it. Overall, 20166 is showing continued improvement.

As a whole, the Sterling real estate market is showing a continued decrease in inventory and increasing buyer demand, both of which are necessary to stabilize a real estate market.

Sterling Real Estate Market Statistics (20164, 20165, 20166) - September 2008

Here are the September 2008 statistics for the Sterling real estate market (20164, 20165 and 20166 zip codes):

Sterling - 20164 - September 2008

• New listings = 126. This is a 7 percent decrease in new inventory as compared to September 2007
• Solds (Under Contract) = 114. This is a 317 percent increase in buyer demand as compared to September 2007

Sterling - 20165 - September 2008

• New listings = 52. This is a 27 percent decrease in new inventory as compared to September 2007
• Solds (Under Contract) = 31. This is a 172 percent increase in buyer demand as compared to September 2007

Sterling - 20166 - September 2008

• New listings = 11. This is a 45 percent decrease in new inventory as compared to September 2007
• Solds (Under Contract) = 15. This is a 214 percent increase in buyer demand as compared to September 2007

The 20164 zip code had the largest increase in buyer demand out of the three zip codes in Sterling. In fact, Sterling's 20164 zip code had more sales and the highest increase in buyer demand in September 2008 out of any zip code in Loudoun County.

But the rate at which new listings came on the market in the 20164 zip code remained relatively steady as compared to last year. This is mostly due to the large number of sub-prime loans and distressed properties found in that zip code which are helping fuel new short-sale and foreclosure/bank-owned listings.

Also.. notice that there were more sales in that zip code than there were new listings. That's great for sellers and the real estate market in general, but not-so-great for buyers looking in that zip code.

Related Articles

Ashburn Real Estate Market Statistics (20147, 20148) - September 2008

Leesburg Real Estate Market Statistics (20175, 20176) - September 2008

No "Summer Slump" For Loudoun County Real Estate In 2008

Loudoun County Real Estate Market Statistics - 1st Half 2008 vs 2007

Loudoun Real Estate Inventory Levels Well Below National Average

Loudoun “Cleaning Up” Sterling Park, Investment Opportunities Abundant

Last year, Sterling Park was the center of an illegal immigration debate and crackdown. This year, Sterling Park is the center of a Loudoun County "clean up" campaign. According to the Washington Post, Loudoun County leaders are focusing on cleaning-up Sterling Park by cracking down on things such as unkempt lawns, crowded homes and truck-jammed curbs they say have eroded the quality of life in Sterling Park.

Here are some excerpts from the Washington Post article:

"This spring, officials held meetings in the Sterling area. They will use residents’ testimony to help create a community improvement program. On Tuesday, officials will consider regulations that would ban the parking of cars in yards and allow volunteers to mow untended lawns. Many residents also have called for stepped-up zoning enforcement to crack down on overcrowded homes, an ongoing issue that supervisors are likely to take up again this fall.

‘The county got so caught up because of the tremendous growth that we’ve had for the last nearly 17 years,’ said board Chairman Scott K. York (I). ‘What happened through that period of time is there wasn’t necessarily that focus on Sterling and other eastern communities.’"

This presents an excellent opportunity for home buyers and real estate investors because,

1. Prices in Sterling Park are about half of what they were at the peak of the market and are showing signs of stabilizing
2. Buyer demand in Sterling Park has doubled this year over last year with buyers and investors scooping up foreclosures/bank-owned properties to rehab/renovate
3. The campaign by Loudoun County to "clean up" the area will help the area become more appealing to buyers, which speaks to demand and helps with long term price appreciation.

Sterling Park presents buyers and investors with the opportunity to "buy at the bottom" in an area that is being "cleaned up" by Loudoun County - a winning long-term investment formula.

Sterling Real Estate Market Match-Up: 20164 vs 20165 vs 20166

LoudounScene.com brings you a real estate market battle between 20164, 20165 and 20165 which all share the same town name - Sterling, Virginia. Although the three zip codes are all a part of Sterling, their individual real estate markets are different in many ways, particularly supply and demand. So in order to determine today’s winner, we’re going to take a close look at the inventory/supply and buyer demands statistics for each zip code.

Want to take a guess at which zip code is the winner? Let’s see if you’re right…

We begin by seeing how the three zip codes stack up against each other when it comes to inventory/supply.

20164

• The number of new listings that came on the market in 2008 (1/1-6/9) was 868 versus 757 during the same period 2007. That’s an increase of 13 percent.

20165

• The number of new listings that came on the market in 2008 (1/1-6/9) was 419 versus 547 during the same period 2007. That’s an decrease of 13 percent.

20166

• The number of new listings that came on the market in 2008 (1/1-6/9) was 120 versus 150 during the same period 2007. That’s a decrease of 20 percent.

So far, 20166 is ahead with the biggest decline in inventory (20 percent). But…

Let’s not forget about buyer demand.

20164

• The number of homes that sold in 2008 (1/1-6/9) was 546 versus 286 during the same period in 2007. That’s an increase of 91 percent.

20165

• The number of homes that sold in 2008 (1/1-6/9) was 265 versus 311 during the same period in 2007. That’s a decrease of 15 percent.

20166

• The number of homes that sold in 2008 (1/1-6/9) was 62 versus 65 during the same period in 2007. That’s a decrease of 5 percent.

The 20164 zip code absolutely anialates 20165 and 20166 when it comes to buyer demand both, in percentage and volume. In fact, all of the homes sold in 20165 and 20166 combined don’t even come close to the number of homes sold in 20164.

So who’s the winner of the June ‘08 Sterling real estate market battle?

It was an interesting race with a different winner in each of the two categories. But after looking at inventory/supply and buyer demand combined, 20164 has been declared the winner. Coming in at a close second is 20166 with 20165 in third.

So which zip code did you pick and why?

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Related Posts:

20148 Beats 20147 In Ashburn Real Estate Market Conditions Bout

Loudoun County Real Estate Inventory Down, Buyer Demand Up

Loudoun County Buyer Demand Up 19 Percent In May

Loudoun County Foreclosure/Bank Owned Property Update

As of this morning, the percentage of properties for sale that are in foreclosure/bank owned in Loudoun County, specifically Ashburn, Sterling and Leesburg is:

• Ashburn - 5 percent
• Sterling - 11 percent
• Leesburg - 11 percent

This is an increase over last month and the highest in several years.

One reason why the perecentage is increasing is because we’re looking at the active properties. More new foreclosures are coming on the market than are selling.

These bank owned foreclosures are not selling nearly as quickly as the other properties because they are not yet priced at a point that makes them very appealing to investors or home buyers. Once you factor in what it would cost to bring them up to the standards of comparable properties, you’re just below or at the same total cost. The difference is that you can just buy a move-in condition property and save yourself the time and hassle of getting contractors out to fix it.

Now, as far as a rental investment, there are some that are appealing. With the amount of rent you can bring in based on the current rental market along with the price point and the monthly payment based on a 20 percent down investor loan, you would break even if not have positive cash flow. But once again, we go back to having to spend the time and energy to fix it up along with at least one if not two months worth of carrying costs (PITI and HOA dues). It seems that most investors that are in it for the long haul (rentals) are not willing to spend this kind of time and energy.

The reason why these foreclosures are still not priced aggressively enough is that the banks have not been beat up enough to drop the price to where the market will absorb them. Once they carry these properties for an extended period of time and the number of foreclosure they have goes up even more, they may start to realize that they need to adjust the prices in order to get the properties off their books.

Time will soon start taking its toll on banks though. We’ll start seeing foreclosures/bank owned properties coming down in price and banks will start accepting offers that they’re currently rejecting because they’re "too low".