Curious about new homes being built in Brambleton? Would you like to take a tour of the different builders’ models, but not sure where they are? Well, here’s a map of the various builder’s model homes and sales centers.

Note: Give me a call or email me before you check out the model homes so I can give you the inside scoop on each builder, models and their specific section within Brambleton.

There is going to be a double bottom in the Loudoun County housing market. No…not could. It is going to happen.

And it’s happening already.

The first bottom in the Loudoun County housing market came in the summer of 2009. The peak of the boom market was the summer of 2005. Prices went into a free fall from the summer of 2005 through the summer of 2009. (Sorry to bring up such a sore subject)

From the summer of 2009 to the end of April 2010, prices rose anywhere from 10 to 20 percent (some pockets of Loudoun County and Northern VA went up even more). Some of the reasons include extremely low housing inventory, record low mortgage rates, the federal home buyer tax credit and a renewed sense of confidence in the housing market and general economy.

But…between May 1, 2010 and today, market values have plateaued and even declined in many areas. Prices have gone down as much as 5 percent in many areas of Loudoun County since May 1 (some areas have seen 10 percent drops).

Values going down since May 1 means that there is going to be a double bottom in the Loudoun County housing market.

What happened?

Inventory increased and demand decreased. Banks started releasing more foreclosure/bank-owned properties on the market and sellers who saw prices increasing and had a renewed sense of (some) confidence decided to finally put their property on the market and make that move they’ve been putting off due to the crappy market.

Buyers who were going to wait until later this year or even the beginning of next year to buy bought earlier partially due to the federal tax credit. You had 12 to 18 months worth of buyer demand all crammed in to a few months while the tax credit was available. Now that all those people have bought, we have less buyer demand.

Also…with prices 10 to 20 percent higher earlier this year than in the summer of 2009, some buyers were priced out of what they originally wanted and could afford to buy.

When is the second bottom in the Loudoun County housing market going to be here and how much will values go down again?

If I knew the answer to this question, I’d be a billionaire. Thus, I still work. But I can make an educated guess…

The first rise in prices took almost 4 years (the boom market of the early 2000’s). The first bottom took 4 years exactly to get here (summer 2005 - summer 2009). The most recent rise in values took about 9 months (summer 2009 - April 30, 2010). I’d say the next bottom will be here 9 to 12 months from May 1 (end of 2010/spring 2011).

Values went up 50+ percent in the boom market and then came down about the same amount. The recent rise in prices was 10 to 20 percent so I’d say a 10+ percent downward correction in the second bottom is very possible.

But that’s just an educated guess. If rates continue to stay low, that may help soften the blow of the second bottom. But rates are artificially depressed thanks to government intervention and Europe’s general economy not doing too well. Should rates go up (which they most likely will) and investors who took money out of Europe and put it into the US stop doing so, all bets are off.

In addition, the cost of financing has risen 33 percent over the past few years. And beginning September 1, the cost of FHA financing (which is very common in this area) will go up substantially, further raising the cost of buying a home. A rising cost in financing and monthly payments is not a good thing for market values.

Yes folks. There is going to be a double bottom in the Loudoun County housing market and we’re already in the midst of the second bottom.

What does this mean to you?

It’s different for everyone and depends on your specific situation. If you would like to chat more about it, email or call me anytime.

Photo Credit

It’s been a quiet year here on LoudounScene.com. That’s because I’ve been out helping more sellers, buyers and investors with their real estate needs than ever!

Yes, I know… that’s not a good excuse if you like getting regular and up to date content and info regarding the Loudoun County housing market. (I apologize for the lull and promise to make it up to you)

Well, I’m here to tell you that I’m back and ready to rock here on LoudounScene.com and at LoudounForeclosures.com! So come back and visit soon or add LoudounScene.com and LoudounForeclosures.com to your Google Reader, RSS feed, etc. - you won’t want to miss the posts coming out soon!

(Nor will you want to miss some of the other changes coming soon as well)

-Danilo

As the world matures, the less significant we become in terms of a number yet, the more connected and necessary we are to one another (if you can’t see the video below, click here)…

P.S. If you can name the song and artist, your next drink is on me.

Though it’s sunny outside right now, a black cloud looms overhead… Joe Ferrara, a pioneer of the RE.net and social media, co-founder of the Sellsius Real Estate blog (one of the best blogs ever) and one of the first people to come to my aid during the Loudoun County Assessor situation a few years ago needs our help.

Joe was recently diagnosed with a malignant brain tumor. And from what I understand, a very aggressive one.

Joe is currently in I.C.U. at New York Hospital. His medical expenses are already through the roof and climbing. Joe and his wife are not in the same tax bracket as Warren Buffet so they need our help (even though they didn’t want to accept it at first).

If you are able to donate - even a few bucks - you can do so at http://www.joe-ferrara.com (thank you to Jay Thompson for setting up the site and the PayPal account for donations).

Joe has always been there for everyone and anyone so let’s do whatever we can to help Joe and his family now in their time of need.

Here’s the latest on Camberley Home’s, Boulevard at Brambleton community in Brambleton, VA…

• They should start selling town homes this summer, probably in the beginning of July
• Base prices should start somewhere in the mid $300’s (prices and options are not set in stone)
• Construction should start sometime in November depending on how quickly Loudoun County approves permits, etc
• Delivery of the first town homes should be March/April 2011 if construction begins in November as planned (and the winter isn’t as brutal as it was last year)

If you would like more information about Camberley Homes and their Boulevard at Brambleton community, feel free to drop me a line - danilo.bogdanovic (at) gmail (dot) com - 703.582.6900 (cell).

Related Posts

Camberley Homes is Bringing “Urban” Style Town Homes to Brambleton

After a year of steadily diminishing housing inventory throughout Loudoun County, inventory has spiked over the last 2 months. After dropping almost 30 percent from the beginning of May 2009 to the middle of April 2010, inventory has spiked up almost 10 percent in a matter of a few weeks…

More Loudoun County housing inventory statistics…

• The number of new listings coming on the market in March 2010 was 50 percent higher than in March 2009 (1092 versus 727)
• The number of new listings coming on the market in April 2010 was 32 percent higher than in April 2009 (994 versus 752).

The increase in new listings and overall inventory may be a very welcome thing if you ask buyers. Most buyers can’t seem to find a home that meets their needs or they’re competing against multiple offers every time they do.

But if you’re a seller, that’s a different story. More homes on the market means more competition, lower selling prices and increased days on market.

Loudoun County housing inventory and the rate of new listings coming on the market is something we all need to keep our eyes on because if inventory continues to go up AND interest rates go up this summer as everyone is saying they will, the market will soften.

Many sellers wait until the Spring to sell their home. Why? Because they think the “Spring housing market” is the best time to sell their home. But is selling your home in the Spring a good thing or is it really a bad thing?

Selling your home in the Spring could be a good thing for reasons such as,

• you have a pool that looks better open than winterized
• the thousands spent on landscaping a million times better in full bloom than in the winter
• having leaves on the trees in your backyard hides the fact that your neighbors are right up on your lot line
• you want to time it so that you settle on the sale of your home and move right after school lets out

But, selling your home in the Spring could be a bad thing. Consider this…

Business/Economics 101: Supply vs Demand

We all know the centuries-old golden rule of business/economics - the more the supply in relation to demand, the longer it takes to sell the supply and the less it will be worth.

Let’s translate that to real estate and the housing market

Your home on the market + more other homes on the market at the same time (”Spring housing market”) = longer time to sell and less money.

Let me explain further

By waiting until the Spring, you will be listing your home when,

1. All of your neighbors (aka competitors) who waited for the “Spring housing market” list their home for sale too
2. The home buyers you want focused on your home and your home only will have more homes to choose from
3. Your home will more easily blend in “with all the others on the market” (actual words from home buyers)
4. A competing seller relocating once the school year is over who has a buy-out package from their employer lists their home at a reduced rate because they don’t care so much about the price rather, selling quickly

I can hear some of you now, “But the Spring is when most buyers come out to buy homes.” Let me respond with some facts you may not be aware of…

Statistics show that January and October have been the #1 and #2 busiest months for homes going under contract (aka buyers buying a home) in Loudoun County/Northern Virginia over the past 6 years (despite Armageddon-size snow storms like the one here this weekend). For me personally, December, January and February are the three busiest months of the year when it comes to home buyers house hunting and writing a contract on a new home.

And if you haven’t checked out my post from the other day entitled, “When Does the ‘Spring Housing Market’ Start?” click here to check it out now.

Other than having to wait until Spring due to work, family, life or some important  selling factor (such as one of the three listed earlier in this post), you should be on the market in January/February. If you can’t list your home in January/February, then aim for another month when the fewest number of other sellers/competitors are listing their homes for sale.By following this approach, you’ll face the least amount of competition and have the greatest chance of selling in a reasonable time and for top dollar.

If you have questions or concerns about selling your home or the local housing market, click here to email me or call me - 703.582.6900 (cell).

Related Posts

When Does the “Spring Housing Market” Start?

A Seller’s Guide to the Short-Sale Process

]]> http://loudounscene.com/2010/02/is-selling-your-home-in-the-spring-a-good-or-bad-thing.html/feed http://loudounscene.com/2010/02/loudoun-real-estate-assessments-assessed-values-and-appeal-process-faqs.html http://loudounscene.com/2010/02/loudoun-real-estate-assessments-assessed-values-and-appeal-process-faqs.html#comments Thu, 04 Feb 2010 17:49:10 +0000 Danilo Bogdanovic http://loudounscene.com/?p=1937


I spent part of yesterday at the Dulles Area Association of REALTORS(R) for a presentation given by Todd Kaufman, Loudoun County Assessor (pictured above), regarding Loudoun County real estate assessments and the appeal process. Speaking alongside Todd Kaufman were Jennifer Sanderson, Operations Manager for the Loudoun County Assessor’s Office and Jim White, Supervising Appraiser, Ashburn Office, Residential Division.

Here are some of the highlights of the presentation and what they had to say…

2010 Loudoun County Real Estate Assessment Overview - Todd Kaufman, Loudoun County Assessor


• The Loudoun County Assessor’s Office revised their mission statement - “biggest change and push is customer service”
• Hard to fight budget and tax rate as an individual through court system, but easier to appeal tax assessment
• Different classification of properties (7 total) based on type, use, density, acreage, etc
• Tax rate is the same for all areas and properties except for Route 28 corridor (commercial)
• Loudoun County real estate assessment is down overall, but much less of a decline in 2009 than previous years
• Some areas in Loudoun such as Sugarland Run saw an increase in the average assessed value
• 64% of Loudoun County’s tax base comes from residential property. About 20% comes from commercial/industrial property
• Loudoun’s residential tax base is down almost 10% over last 5 years while commercial is up about 5% over same period
• Dulles District is by far the number one area for tax revenue/base (mainly because it has the most number of residential properties located within it)
• Overall change in real property assessments in Loudoun County - declined 3.29% ($1.97B) from 2009 to 2010
• Change in “equalized” value - down average of 4.79%
• Loudoun County new construction/growth up $569M in 2009 to $899.6M in 2009, but down from almost $5B 5 years ago (during the boom market)
• 25,000 parcels (aka lots) are ready for development in Loudoun County
• “2010 assessed values show sign of recovery”
• Average assessed value in Loudoun County is $354,000 (not to be confused with market value or average sales price)
• Assessed values up almost 500 percent since 1992. Rapid upswing from 2001 to 2006 and then sharp decline to 2009. Slight decrease in 2010. “Hoping for stabilization moving forward”
• Loudoun County has $4.8B in total assessed value in exempt properties
• Howard Hughes Medical Center is tax exempt, but gives $1M to schools and $200K to fire/rescue on their own (completely voluntary)
• Loudoun has 1600 foreclosures in 2009
• Decline in foreclosures, but increase in short-sales
• Most number of foreclosures in 2009 were in Sterling (which only has 7000 parcels/homes). Dulles District was number two, but it has 30,000 parcels/properties. Overall number of foreclosures is diminishing overall though
• 30 year old system being used to determine Loudoun County assessed values
• Each assessor in the Loudoun County Assessor’s Office is responsible for assessing an average of 7,000 properties (between the 30 year old system and 7,000 per person work load, no wonder it’s hard to get the assessed values right)

Louduon County Assessed Value Appeal/Review Process - Todd Kaufman, Loudoun County Assessor

• There is a mandate as to how the appeal/review process works
• Loudoun County has to follow statutes and codes as to process
• There are 5 steps to the Appeal/Review process…

1. Assessment notice sent out by Loudoun County and reviewed by home owner.
2. Home owner must submit application for review (processed within assessor’s office).
3. Home owner must submit a written request for reconsideration of current assessment based on “erroneous error” (aka you can’t just say “I don’t think it’s worth what you say it is”)
4. Formal appeal to Board of Equalization (BoE)
5. If you don’t get the results you want from the Board of Equalization, you can go through the court system

• “Assessment notice goes above and beyond what the law requires”
• “Appeal process with assessor’s office is a non-adversarial process”
• BoE is court-appointed home owners living in Loudoun County. 4 members total. Burden is on home owner contesting assessment
• BoE decision is only for that year
• The Loudoun County Assessor’s Office on-line appeal application/review form is easy to complete and submit. Pre-populates the form once parcel ID is entered. You can add up to 3 attachments for supporting documents for appeal (see the bottom of this post for more on supporting documents to make your case stronger)
• To get more information about the Loudoun County assessment appeal/review process and to fill out the form on-line, click here to go to the Loudoun County Assessor’s Office web site.
  

Deadlines for Loudoun County Assessment/Assessed Value Appeals/Reviews

• March 5 - deadline for office review by Loudoun County Assessor’s Office
• June 1 - deadline to file formal appeal to BoE
• December 31 - deadline to file with court

Sample of Questions Asked By Attendees and Answered by Todd, Jennifer and/or Jim


• Question: One Ashburn Farm resident asked how her assessment  is up 21% when her neighbors’ assessments are down.
• Answer: “Could be mistake. Make sure you check the data that the county has on file.”
• Question: How do you account for unfinished/finished basements?
• Answer: “Picking up finished basements is done through the MRIS [the local MLS].”
• Question: Why is the BoE’s decision only good for one year?
• Answer: “Often times, there is a lack of supporting data from the BoE as to their decision so we put the value back at what we think it is the following year. But they’re [BoE] is getting better.”

Personal Observations and Comments

• How the Loudoun County Assessor’s Office treats bank-owned properties and short-sales is completely gray - no clear answer was given as to how nor what formula is used
• Todd said his office goes back through last year’s BoE decisions and takes those into consideration
• The Loudoun County Assessor’s Office has 4 people that do nothing else but collect data for the purpose of assessed values
• County Assessors Office “put sinformation into system to come up with value” (aka they don’t do it themselves nor is it a traditional appraisal - it’s a “mass appraisal”)
• They kept talking about how the assessments are formulated through a “system” yet, they couldn’t define what the “system” was except that it’s been in place for 30 years

Questions I had for the Loudoun County Assessor

1. How many licensed appraisers are conducting assessments and what standards are they held to (USPAP)?
2. How many homes do you actually go inside of, if any?
3. How many homes do you drive by?

I’m still waiting on answers to these questions and will keep you posted if/when I hear back.

If you have specific questions regarding your assessment, you can contact the Loudoun County Assessor’s Office by email, phone or in person….

• Email - assessor@loudoun.gov
• Phone - 703.777.0267
• Leesburg Main Office - 1 Harrison St, S.E. 5th Floor
• Ashburn Satellite Office - 45201 Research Place, Suite 130
• Loudoun County Assessor’s Office web site/home page

In order to make your case stronger when appealing your assessment, contact me to get comps (recent sales of properties that are similar to yours) to submit with your appeal application - danilo.bogdanovic@gmail.com - 703.582.6900.

]]> http://loudounscene.com/2010/02/loudoun-real-estate-assessments-assessed-values-and-appeal-process-faqs.html/feed http://loudounscene.com/2010/02/when-does-the-spring-housing-market-start.html http://loudounscene.com/2010/02/when-does-the-spring-housing-market-start.html#comments Wed, 03 Feb 2010 11:00:04 +0000 Danilo Bogdanovic http://loudounscene.com/?p=1921


Many sellers and buyers are waiting until Spring for the “Spring housing market” to sell their home or buy one. But when does the “Spring housing market” really start?

The most common answer is, “Spring!” Is that correct?

Nope.

The “Spring housing market” has already started. In fact, it starts in January. In the 6 years of being a Realtor, January has been the busiest month of the year for me (and in general) when it comes to buyers house hunting and writing a contract on a new home. The third busiest month? February. (The second busiest month is October)

“Really?”

Yup. And here are some guesses as to why based on what buyers have personally told me…

More time + more money = more buyers in the market to buy a home.

People are busy with end of year work, holidays and their children’s winter break in December. This puts selling their home or buying one on the back burner. Once January rolls around, all of that is behind them and they have more time on their hands so they start house hunting.

December and January also equal Christmas/year-end bonuses. And let’s not forget that many people know they have tax money coming back to them from Uncle Sam soon so the thought of a hefty down payment is a bit more bearable.

What it means to you if you’re a seller

If you’re thinking about selling your home, for these and other reasons, you may want to strongly consider listing your home in January/February (more on this in another post coming soon).

What it means to you if you’re a buyer

If you’re a home buyer house hunting in January/February, know that other buyers are doing the same thing so be prepared for increased competition (aka multiple offers) on properties that are great deals.

If you have specific questions or concerns regarding buying or selling a home or the local housing market in general, click here to email me or call me - 703.582.6900.

Related Posts


Is Selling Your Home in the Spring a Good or Bad Thing?

A Seller’s Guide to the Short-Sale Process

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