River Creek Real Estate Market Update – Single Family Homes

Here’s the latest on the single family home real estate market in River Creek (Loudoun County)…

Overview

The overall single family home real estate market in River Creek is balanced – neither a seller’s nor buyer’s market. Buyer activity is up (though it’s not a buyer’s market by any means) and homes are selling in a timely manner if they are priced, marketed and presented correctly.

If you are a River Creek buyer, you will see everything from overpriced to underpriced single family homes on the market. Have your Buyer’s Agent give you the comps on any properties you’re interested in so you know how the asking price compares to current market value. If a property is at or below market value, don’t expect to “steal” the property from under the seller. If the property is underpriced by a significant amount, expect to battle it out with other buyers’ offers (yes, even in the $1M+ price point).

If you are a River Creek seller, you don’t have an overabundance of competition, but you still have competition. If you price, market and present your property correctly, you will have buyers come through and an offer in your hands in a timely manner. If you are selling your house “short” and under price it to get an offer quickly, you may very well see multiple offers on the property.

Numbers/Statistics

The number of single family homes listed for sale 2011 YTD is up 7.5% from this time last year. Not so good for sellers, but good for buyers because they have more choices. But, in the end, this stat is washed out because…

The number of single family homes sold 2011 YTD is up 28% from this time last year. This increase is much higher than the increase in homes listed which is why it washes out the previous stat. This is great news for sellers because there is more demand and helps with market values. For buyers, it means that there are more buyers actively buying properties in River Creek and you may have to face some of them in competition for the same property.

The average number of single family homes that sell each month 2011 YTD is 3.13. This is a 28% increase over this time last year (2.26 per month average). More activity in the River Creek single family home market is good news for sellers and home owners. For buyers…see the paragraph above.

The current number of active single family homes in River Creek is 21. Based on the absorption rate (3.13 per month), there is a 6.71 month supply of single family homes in River Creek. Generally speaking, anything over a 4 month supply is considered a “soft/buyer’s market”. But considering the price point, 6.71 shows a balanced market. The reason for this is because the higher the price point, the longer the average days on market and months supply of inventory.

Summary

The single family home real estate market in River Creek continues to show increased buyer activity and is considered to be a “balanced market”. Though sellers will be happy about this, some buyers may not. But remember buyers…once you move in and become a River Creek home owner, you’re going to want the exact same thing you dreaded as a buyer – a strengthening real estate market in River Creek rather than a weakening one.

If you would like more information about the real estate market in River Creek or are interested in selling or buying in River Creek, click here to contact me.

Loudoun County Housing Inventory and Days On Market

Let’s take a look at Loudoun County’s housing inventory and average days on market (DOM). This is important to know because it gives you a sense of how to negotiate as a buyer and how to position your property as a seller.

Loudoun County inventory – new and active listings

There are just under 1500 active listings in Loudoun County, which is on the low side. To give you some comparison points…active listings hit a decade-low 1087 in December 2009 (seller’s market and values went up). And active listings hit an all time high of 4659 in the summer of 2006 (that’s when everything really hit the fan, prices started tanking and it was a buyer’s market).

Note: Yes, inventory has risen in the recent weeks. But that’s a yearly/seasonal thing called the “Spring market” when sellers believe they can get the most for their homes and put their home on the market.

Loudoun County average Days On Market (DOM)

The general rule of thumb in this area has been that when DOM goes above 4 months (120+ days), it signals a buyer’s market. If DOM is below 3 months (<90 days), it signals a a seller’s market. Right in between 90 and 120 days typically signals a balanced market. As you can see, DOM is below 80 and was even as low as 40 for a while there.

What does all of this mean?

For home owners that are able to sell their home at its’ present value, the market is on your side. DOM and inventory are low, two things that bode well for sellers.

For buyers, it means that your choice of homes is limited. In addition, you’ll see a lot of competition on the current homes on the market and even stiffer competition (aka multiple offers) on the homes that are priced very well and a great value.

Even though the signs point to a sellers’ market (and recovery), don’t get overly excited. Among other things, there is a lot of shadow foreclosure inventory to still get through and lending guidelines are making it harder and more expensive for consumers to get financing.

If you would like statistics about a specific town or community within Loudoun County, don’t hesitate to contact me.

Ashburn Single Family Home Median Price Up $20K

The median price of single family homes in Ashburn (20147 and 20148 zip codes) has gone up almost $20K since April. This is mainly due to less inventory on the market and more buyers purchasing properties – supply vs demand. We’re currently seeing a plateau in median prices, but that’s probably due to a typical slowdown in buyer demand over the summer months.

Ashburn Single Family Home Median Price – up $20K since April

Ashburn Single Family Home Inventory – down 30 percent since 9/08

P.S. Check back on Tuesday for Leesburg’s median price and inventory levels.

Loudoun Community Spotlight: Pulte Homes, Windermere in Ashburn

This Loudoun County Community Spotlight falls on the Pulte Homes Windermere community in Ashburn, VA. The Windermere community is located near the corner of Claiborne Parkway and Croson Lane immediately next to the Broadlands community.

Windermere is a mix of large town homes and medium sized single family homes. A total of 91 town homes and 83 single family homes will make up the community. Pulte has built or sold about 35 percent of the total homes so far and they’re expecting to sell the remainder of the community within the next 18 months. That puts completion of the entire community at about 24 months.

In speaking with the Pulte sales staff, I found out that they’ve already sold 9 homes this month (that’s a lot for new construction especially in a community of only 174 homes). I’m sometimes skeptical at how busy they say they are, but I’m going to believe them on this one – there at the same time as I was today were three Buyer’s Agents with their clients, two other sets of buyers without an agent and one set of buyers about to write a contract. And that was at 3:30pm on a Wednesday.

Base Prices/Models

Prices on the town homes start at $380K for the Westley II interior model (2296 – 2735 sq ft) and $390K for the Tyler exterior model (2411 – 2857 sq ft).

Prices on the single family homes start at $524K for the Kenley model (2696 sq ft on upper two levels); $533K for the Wynnewood model (2770 sq ft on upper two levels); and $542K for the Jamestown model (2974 sq ft on upper two levels).

Delivery Dates

Delivery dates vary, but count on about 4 to 6 months on the town homes and about 6 months on the single family homes. There are some “spec” homes available for earlier delivery including a Tyler model in the low $400K’s with a September delivery date.

Incentives

Pulte is offering some incentives as far as closing costs if you use their preferred lender. As for wiggle room in the base prices and/or options, there may or may not be any – that’s a secret I’ll only share with my clients (it’s only fair).

Amenities/HOA fees

Two things that popped out at me were the lack of amenities and not-much-return HOA fees. There are no amenities in the community yet, the HOA fee is $86 for single family homes and $100 for town homes. Considering what other communities within Ashburn and Loudoun County charge for HOA fees and the amenities they offer, Windermere has high HOA fees with little offered to home owners in return. In case you’re wondering…neither I (nor the sale rep from Pulte) could figure out why the town home fees are higher than the single family home fees.

Photos/Video Tour

There should be a slideshow of community photos I took at the top of this post (click here if you don’t see it). And don’t forget to check out my two-part video tour of the Windermere Pulte Homes Westley II and Tyler model town homes – part one and part two.

Visiting the new homes sales center in person

Make sure you have your Buyer’s Agent with you when you visit a new home/builder sales center. Click here to find out why.

“On The Streets” of the Loudoun County Housing Market

You read the news and see the statistics. You hear what you’re neighbors and friends are saying. But what is really happening “on the streets” of the Loudoun County housing market?

Here you go…

Buyers looking to get a great deal on a property are seeing well priced properties sell within weeks if not days of coming on the market. Many very well priced properties are seeing multiple offers and bidding wars – 2, 5 even 10+ offers. Many buyers are bidding on 2, 3 even 5 properties before finally having the winning offer and buying a house.

Sellers who price and market their property correctly are seeing lots of buyers coming through their property almost immediately after coming on the market. An offer within the first few weeks on the market is common for properly priced properties. On the other hand, no activity and no offers is the norm for overpriced properties. In a nutshell, Value is King.

We’re also seeing an up-tick in median prices in some areas of Loudoun County (as well as some areas of Fairfax County) – though this does not necessarily reflect an increase in any one specific property’s value. Take a look at the latest statistics regarding median prices and inventory levels in different parts of Loudoun County to see for yourself.

The local market is such because inventory levels (number of homes on the market) have decreased an average of 50 percent since 2007 and an average of 20 percent since this time last year. At the same time, buyer demand (aka number of homes being sold) has increased by an average of 50 percent thanks to historically low interest rates and the $8,000 first-time home buyer credit. This translates to more buyers trying to buy the same type of property, but there are less homes to choose from. But even though more buyers are fighting over fewer properties, buyers are not being suckered into or getting frustrated to the point of overpaying for a property.

Note: Despite the majority of the Loudoun housing market showing signs of stabilization, the $1M+ home sector is not fairing as well. Inventory is stagnant as is buyer demand. This is bad for sellers of $1M+ properties, but good for home buyers in that price point.

Another trend we’re seeing is a substantial decrease in foreclosure/bank-owned inventory on the market (thanks to the foreclosure moratoriums of late 2008/early 2009) and a significant increase in short-sale inventory. This has led to increased frustration on the part of buyers and agents some of whom are not familiar with the nuances of short-sale transactions and don’t know how to properly navigate through such a transaction. Getting a response from the bank(s) on a short-sale can take as little as 45 days and as long as 6 months with the average being about 90 days (more on this in a future post over at LoudounForeclosures.com).

Up until this year, many real estate investors were sitting on the sidelines as median prices continued their downward trend and good investment opportunities were rare. But that has changed. We’re seeing investors getting back into the market buying up distressed properties, doing rehab on them and then either flipping them for a 10 to 30 percent profit or renting them out as part of their long-term investment plan. Investors are especially prevelant in parts of Sterling and Leesburg.

And that folks, is the reality of the Loudoun (and Northern Virginia) housing market.

If you would like me to go into more detail or need information about a specific town, neighborhood or subdivision in Loudoun (or north/east Fairfax County), feel free to contact me.