The Latest Loudoun County Housing Inventory Statistics

The number of homes for sale in Loudoun County (and the entire DC metro area) is definitely either down or trending down. Let’s look at the following charts showing inventory levels of single family homes and town homes in the Sterling, Ashburn, Leesburg and South Riding/Chantilly areas:

(Note: These are new interactive flash charts - feel free to play around with them, move the slider around, etc., and let me know what you think)

Sterling

Ashburn

Leesburg

South Riding/Chantilly

Home Buyer Demand, Sales Up Across Loudoun and Fairfax County

Home buyer demand/sales in Loudoun County were up 11 percent in the 3rd quarter of 2009 over the 3rd quarter 2008. And it’s up 53 percent over 2007. (Buyer demand is defined by the number of homes that go under contract during a set time period)

Fairfax County had an 18 percent increase in home buyer demand/sales in the 3rd quarter 2009 over 2008. And it’s up 62 percent over 2007.

Why the increase?

1. Lower prices - prices have come down considerably since the peak making it more affordable and appealing for home buyers. And the less expensive something is, the more people can afford it
2. Low interest rates - interest rates hit historical lows and are still very low. Lower interest rate = greater purchasing power
3. Programs/benefits - Programs such as the $8000 first-time home buyer federal tax credit has helped spark demand (click here for more info on first-time home buyer tax credit). I’ve worked with more first-time home buyers this year than in any of the last 6 years (and it’s only October). Other programs such as the Freddie Mac HomeSteps SmartBuy program have also helped increased demand (click here for more info on Smartbuy program)

Will it continue?

Maybe. If rates remain steady and/or the tax credit get renewed or a similar program come out, then we’ll probably see home buyer demand steady or continue increasing (though I don’t think there’s room for too much more increase in buyer demand).

Maybe not. If rates creep up and/or the first-time home buyer federal tax credit not be renewed and/or (more) bad economic news come out, we may see buyer demand taper off or even decrease.

Who wins?

The buyers that purchased a home at a much lower price than years prior and at a low interest rate while taking advantage of the first-time home buyer federal tax credit made out the best.

Sellers came in at a close second - increased demand and very low inventory make for a winning combination when selling your home.

Leesburg Single Family Home Median Price up $35K

The median price of single family homes in Leesburg (20175 and 20176 zip codes) has gone up $35K since April. With inventory down 33 percent since 9/08 and buyer demand up, median prices have gone up. You can feel the effect of this in the housing market conditions in the area - Buyers have less inventory to choose from and more competition from other buyers while sellers are seeing more buyers coming through and competing for their property (if priced correctly) than since 2005.

Leesburg Single Family Home Median Price - up $35K

Leesburg Single Family Home Inventory - down 33 percent

Good News For Home Buyers Using FHA Financing!

Good news for  home buyers using FHA financing! The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) has no plans to implement the Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC), which has been the cause of a wide array of problems for home buyers, sellers and lenders.

The FHA is looking at alternatives to the HVCC it feels would insulate appraisers from pressure from lenders while not hurting consumers and lenders.

I’m all for keeping lenders from pressuring appraisers to “hit the number”, but the HVCC is not the way to do it. Glad the FHA realizes this too and that it’s taking steps other than adopting the HVCC to accomplish this.

If you are thinking about buying a home and using FHA financing, there are several great FHA lenders in the area you can speak with. Email or call me and I’ll send you a list (click here to contact me).

“On The Streets” of the Loudoun County Housing Market

You read the news and see the statistics. You hear what you’re neighbors and friends are saying. But what is really happening “on the streets” of the Loudoun County housing market?

Here you go…

Buyers looking to get a great deal on a property are seeing well priced properties sell within weeks if not days of coming on the market. Many very well priced properties are seeing multiple offers and bidding wars - 2, 5 even 10+ offers. Many buyers are bidding on 2, 3 even 5 properties before finally having the winning offer and buying a house.

Sellers who price and market their property correctly are seeing lots of buyers coming through their property almost immediately after coming on the market. An offer within the first few weeks on the market is common for properly priced properties. On the other hand, no activity and no offers is the norm for overpriced properties. In a nutshell, Value is King.

We’re also seeing an up-tick in median prices in some areas of Loudoun County (as well as some areas of Fairfax County) - though this does not necessarily reflect an increase in any one specific property’s value. Take a look at the latest statistics regarding median prices and inventory levels in different parts of Loudoun County to see for yourself.

The local market is such because inventory levels (number of homes on the market) have decreased an average of 50 percent since 2007 and an average of 20 percent since this time last year. At the same time, buyer demand (aka number of homes being sold) has increased by an average of 50 percent thanks to historically low interest rates and the $8,000 first-time home buyer credit. This translates to more buyers trying to buy the same type of property, but there are less homes to choose from. But even though more buyers are fighting over fewer properties, buyers are not being suckered into or getting frustrated to the point of overpaying for a property.

Note: Despite the majority of the Loudoun housing market showing signs of stabilization, the $1M+ home sector is not fairing as well. Inventory is stagnant as is buyer demand. This is bad for sellers of $1M+ properties, but good for home buyers in that price point.

Another trend we’re seeing is a substantial decrease in foreclosure/bank-owned inventory on the market (thanks to the foreclosure moratoriums of late 2008/early 2009) and a significant increase in short-sale inventory. This has led to increased frustration on the part of buyers and agents some of whom are not familiar with the nuances of short-sale transactions and don’t know how to properly navigate through such a transaction. Getting a response from the bank(s) on a short-sale can take as little as 45 days and as long as 6 months with the average being about 90 days (more on this in a future post over at LoudounForeclosures.com).

Up until this year, many real estate investors were sitting on the sidelines as median prices continued their downward trend and good investment opportunities were rare. But that has changed. We’re seeing investors getting back into the market buying up distressed properties, doing rehab on them and then either flipping them for a 10 to 30 percent profit or renting them out as part of their long-term investment plan. Investors are especially prevelant in parts of Sterling and Leesburg.

And that folks, is the reality of the Loudoun (and Northern Virginia) housing market.

If you would like me to go into more detail or need information about a specific town, neighborhood or subdivision in Loudoun (or north/east Fairfax County), feel free to contact me.

Sterling Housing Market Update

Here’s a look at what’s going on with the Sterling housing market (all zip codes)…

Sterling Median Price

The median price has been falling in Sterling since the market turned until about March of this year. Over the past rew months, the median price has spiked significantly (by almost $100,000).

Sterling Inventory

Inventory of single family and town homes in Sterling has dropped by 60 percent since 2007 and 56 percent since this time last year. The condo inventory in Sterling has dropped by 45 percent since this time last year. This is most significant decrease of inventory out of any large town in Loudoun County.

Sterling Housing Market Overview

The huge drop in inventory throughout Sterling along with a huge increase in buyer demand has lead to a huge shift in the housing market in Sterling. Sterling has some of the lowest price points in Loudoun and lots of foreclosure and short-sale activity making it extremely attractive to first-time home buyers and investors. We’re even seeing areas of Sterling with slight to substantial recent price appreciation.

Homes that are priced well are getting a lot of traffic and a purchase offer within 1 to 2 weeks on the market. Homes priced slightly below (or way below as is the case with many bank-owned and short-sale properties) are getting multiple offers (5, 10, 15+ offers) and are bidding up over asking price within days, if not hours of hitting the market.

We’re seeing slight signs of the inventory leveling out. Unless it levels out, we’ll most likely see median prices continue their upward trend and lots of multiple offers on properties well into the summer.

South Riding, 20152 Housing Market Update

Here’s a look at what’s going on with the South Riding/20152 zip code housing market…

South Riding/20152 Zip Code Median Price

The median price for single family and town homes in South Riding/20152 zip code is showing a slight uptick after having dropped over 70 percent over the last 2.5 years. We’ll need to see some more evidence of median prices going sideways or up to call it a trend.

Condo are in the same boat as single family and town homes. After having dropped over 60 percent over the last 2.5 years, they showing slight signs of stabilizing. We’ll have to wait and see what median prices do this summer and fall before coming to a more firm conclusion.

South Riding/20152 Inventory

Inventory of single family and town homes spiked like crazy in the 2nd quarter of 2007 and South Riding/20152 zip code has been working it off ever since. Inventory of single family and town homes is down over 40 percent from July 2007 and down almost 20 percent from this time last year.

Condo inventory spiked way up, then went pretty much sideways for a year and is now down almost 40 percent from this time last year. It’s gone up slightly over the past two months, but appears to be going sideways at the moment.

South Riding/20152 Housing Market Overview

The South Riding and 20152 zip code housing market is a bit more volatile than other markets in Loudoun County because it’ has less total properties within its’ boundaries with everything from condos to large McMansions. The lower price points are selling faster and at a higher rate.

Much like the rest of Loudoun County and Northern Virginia in general, if the property is priced well, it will sell in less than 30 days. If it’s not priced correctly, it’ll just sit on the market collecting dust.

Leesburg Housing Market Update

Here’s a look at what’s going on with the Leesburg housing market (20175 and 20176 zip codes)…

Leesburg Median Price

The median price of single family and town homes in Leesburg has been bouncing up and down between just over $600,000 and $640,000 for over 2 years. Over the past few months, we’ve seen it go from about $608,000 to about $625,000.

On the other hand, the median price of condos in Leesburg has steadily dropped over 60 percent since the spring of 2007. The good news is that the median price hit about $245,000 at the very end of 2008 and has been going sideways, if not slightly up since then.

Leesburg Inventory

Single family and town home inventory in Leesburg was cut in half from the summer of 2007 to the spring of this year. We’ve seen an increase in single family and town home inventory over the past three months, but it looks like the rate of new inventory coming on the market may be slowing down as the summer months approach.

Condo inventory in Leesburg is down over 40 percent from this time last year. It looks like it showing signs of a potential plateau, but we’ll have to wait and see to know for sure.

Leesburg Housing Market Overview

It’s hard to generalize the Leesburg housing market because even two neighboring communities within the same zip code can have completely different housing market conditions. One example is River Creek versus Potomac Station. Another is Beacon Hill versus Shenstone Farm. Yet another is Tavistock Farm versus Stratford Landing.

Generally speaking, the Leesburg housing market is stabilizing a bit thanks to lower inventory and more buyer demand. But how much depends on the specific community/subdivision within Leesburg and price point. Some properties, such as town homes and entry-level single family homes are seeing multiple offers left and right while the $800K- $1M+ properties in communities such as River Creek, Lansdowne, Shenstone Farm and Beacon Hill are seeing less overall activity due to a much smaller buyer pool at that price point.

Median prices will probably continue their sideways trend while inventory levels level out or possibly drop a bit during the summer months depending on the type of property and price point.

Ashburn Housing Market Update

Here’s a look at what’s going on with the Ashburn housing market (20147 and 20148 zip codes)…

Ashburn Median Price

After it’s most recent drop from October 2008 through March 2009, the median price for single family and town homes in Ashburn has ticked up over the past two months.

Condos in Ashburn aren’t showing an uptick in median price, but they have plateaued.

Ashburn Inventory

The number of homes for sale in Ashburn continued it’s downward trend. We saw an uptick during the “spring market”, but inventory is either plateauing or on the way down once again. A downward trend should continue through the summer months because many sellers think that the summer is not a good time to put their homes on the market.

Ashburn Housing Market Overview

As inventory diminishes and buyer demand increases (thanks to lower prices, historically low rates, $8K tax credit, etc), we’re seeing the market stabilize a bit. We’re even seeing pockets of Ashburn with slight price appreciation due such low inventory and increased buyer demand.

Homes that are priced well are getting a lot of foot traffic and a purchase offer within 1 to 3 weeks on the market. Homes priced slightly below (or way below as is the case with many bank-owned and short-sale properties) are getting multiple offers and are bidding up over asking price within days of hitting the market.

Unless the inventory or rates increase (or some huge economic news rattles the entire nation), we’ll see these trends and this type of market continue through at least the summer.

Fed Makes Huge Drop in Rates!!!

In the face of a huge housing crisis that is threatening to drag down the entire economy, the Federal Reserver dropped the widely followed Fed Funds Rate .75.  This puts the Fed Funds Rate at 3.5o%.  The fear of a recession is obviously higher than the fear of inflation. 

This size adjustment was not anticipated by many.   Most people felt they would lower the rate by .25 or .50.  This was the first .75 point cut since October 1984.  With the stock markets around the world falling and our stock market deteriorating on the fear of a recession the Federal Reserve has decided to make decisive moves.

The timing of the rate cut was not anticipated either.  This was an emergency cut ahead of their regularly scheduled meeting. 

Will it keep us out of a recession?  Only time will tell.

T