State of the Loudoun County Housing Market

Wondering what the current state of the Loudoun County housing market is and where it’s trending? Here’s a detailed breakdown…

Loudoun County Home Buyer Activity Up

As you can see in the graph below, the average number of homes that go under contract each month in Loudoun County has been around 400 for the last half of 2010. But, starting January 2011, the number of homes going under contract increased dramatically and has been averaging just below 600 per month for the past 4 months. This means that buyers are out in greater force and actively buying properties – almost 50 percent more this year than they were the last half of 2010.

Loudoun County Housing Inventory Up…Down…Up

The number of active listings (homes for sale) in Loudoun County makes me think of the Grizzly in King’s Dominion. After hitting 1742 in September 2010, the number of active listings dropped quickly to a mere 1200-something in December, January and February (that’s a ridiculously low amount). But then it climbed quickly and is back up to 1696 as of June 2011. The increase is a trend that points away from a seller’s market, but don’t be fooled…1700 is still considered low when it comes to the total number of homes for sale in all of Loudoun County.

Loudoun County Median Sales Price Up

While the median home price in Loudoun County took another dip in the last half of 2010, it’s been on the rise in 2011. After going down in the last half of 2010 and hitting a low of $317,500 in January 2011, the median sales price hit $410,000 in June 2011. That’s almost a $100K/32% increase!

Loudoun County Average Days On Market Down

After hitting an average of only 49 days, the average days on market in Loudoun County went up to 86 (which is still not too shabby) in February 2011. Since then, the average days on market has dropped back down to 60. That’s only 2 months and is an important technical indicator that points to a seller’s market (though we need to keep an eye on the increase in active listings which may soon start to put upward pressure on the average days on market).

These statistics reinforce what my clients, myself and other active agents have been seeing on the ground…

• More buyers and investors are out buying a home or investment property this year than last year
• The extremely low interest rates have made a positive impact on the market
• Inventory is down so finding the right home for a buyer takes longer now than it did last year (patience is a virtue)
• Sellers that price, market and present their homes correctly are getting offers sooner than they would have last year
• Sellers have more negotiating power this year than last year (while buyers have less)
• Prices are higher today than they were last year (supply vs demand)

If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home in Loudoun County or would like to know what the market is like in your specific community, click here to contact me – I would happy to provide you with a free hyper-local market analysis and CMA.

Loudoun County Housing Inventory and Days On Market

Let’s take a look at Loudoun County’s housing inventory and average days on market (DOM). This is important to know because it gives you a sense of how to negotiate as a buyer and how to position your property as a seller.

Loudoun County inventory – new and active listings

There are just under 1500 active listings in Loudoun County, which is on the low side. To give you some comparison points…active listings hit a decade-low 1087 in December 2009 (seller’s market and values went up). And active listings hit an all time high of 4659 in the summer of 2006 (that’s when everything really hit the fan, prices started tanking and it was a buyer’s market).

Note: Yes, inventory has risen in the recent weeks. But that’s a yearly/seasonal thing called the “Spring market” when sellers believe they can get the most for their homes and put their home on the market.

Loudoun County average Days On Market (DOM)

The general rule of thumb in this area has been that when DOM goes above 4 months (120+ days), it signals a buyer’s market. If DOM is below 3 months (<90 days), it signals a a seller’s market. Right in between 90 and 120 days typically signals a balanced market. As you can see, DOM is below 80 and was even as low as 40 for a while there.

What does all of this mean?

For home owners that are able to sell their home at its’ present value, the market is on your side. DOM and inventory are low, two things that bode well for sellers.

For buyers, it means that your choice of homes is limited. In addition, you’ll see a lot of competition on the current homes on the market and even stiffer competition (aka multiple offers) on the homes that are priced very well and a great value.

Even though the signs point to a sellers’ market (and recovery), don’t get overly excited. Among other things, there is a lot of shadow foreclosure inventory to still get through and lending guidelines are making it harder and more expensive for consumers to get financing.

If you would like statistics about a specific town or community within Loudoun County, don’t hesitate to contact me.

The Latest Loudoun County Housing Inventory Statistics

The number of homes for sale in Loudoun County (and the entire DC metro area) is definitely either down or trending down. Let’s look at the following charts showing inventory levels of single family homes and town homes in the Sterling, Ashburn, Leesburg and South Riding/Chantilly areas:

(Note: These are new interactive flash charts – feel free to play around with them, move the slider around, etc., and let me know what you think)

Sterling

Ashburn

Leesburg

South Riding/Chantilly

Leesburg Single Family Home Median Price up $35K

The median price of single family homes in Leesburg (20175 and 20176 zip codes) has gone up $35K since April. With inventory down 33 percent since 9/08 and buyer demand up, median prices have gone up. You can feel the effect of this in the housing market conditions in the area – Buyers have less inventory to choose from and more competition from other buyers while sellers are seeing more buyers coming through and competing for their property (if priced correctly) than since 2005.

Leesburg Single Family Home Median Price – up $35K

Leesburg Single Family Home Inventory – down 33 percent

Ashburn Single Family Home Median Price Up $20K

The median price of single family homes in Ashburn (20147 and 20148 zip codes) has gone up almost $20K since April. This is mainly due to less inventory on the market and more buyers purchasing properties – supply vs demand. We’re currently seeing a plateau in median prices, but that’s probably due to a typical slowdown in buyer demand over the summer months.

Ashburn Single Family Home Median Price – up $20K since April

Ashburn Single Family Home Inventory – down 30 percent since 9/08

P.S. Check back on Tuesday for Leesburg’s median price and inventory levels.

Sterling Single Family Home Median Price Up $70K

The median price of single family homes in Sterling (20164, 20165, 20166 zip codes) has gone up an astonishing $70K since April. Talk about a roller coaster of a ride for median prices in Sterling – they have been in a free fall since the market turned in 2005, hit $260K in April, shot up to about $380K and came back down to $335K.

If there was ever a great example of what supply vs demand means to median prices, Sterling is it. Check out how median prices starting coming back down at the very same time that inventory started to increase (July 1).

Sterling Single Family Home Median Price – up $70K since April

Sterling Single Family Home Inventory – up 25 percent since July

What will median prices do going forward? We’ll have to see whether inventory continues to go up, plateau or go down.

P.S. Check back tomorrow for Ashburn’s median price and inventory levels.

Sterling Housing Market Update

Here’s a look at what’s going on with the Sterling housing market (all zip codes)…

Sterling Median Price

The median price has been falling in Sterling since the market turned until about March of this year. Over the past rew months, the median price has spiked significantly (by almost $100,000).

Sterling Inventory

Inventory of single family and town homes in Sterling has dropped by 60 percent since 2007 and 56 percent since this time last year. The condo inventory in Sterling has dropped by 45 percent since this time last year. This is most significant decrease of inventory out of any large town in Loudoun County.

Sterling Housing Market Overview

The huge drop in inventory throughout Sterling along with a huge increase in buyer demand has lead to a huge shift in the housing market in Sterling. Sterling has some of the lowest price points in Loudoun and lots of foreclosure and short-sale activity making it extremely attractive to first-time home buyers and investors. We’re even seeing areas of Sterling with slight to substantial recent price appreciation.

Homes that are priced well are getting a lot of traffic and a purchase offer within 1 to 2 weeks on the market. Homes priced slightly below (or way below as is the case with many bank-owned and short-sale properties) are getting multiple offers (5, 10, 15+ offers) and are bidding up over asking price within days, if not hours of hitting the market.

We’re seeing slight signs of the inventory leveling out. Unless it levels out, we’ll most likely see median prices continue their upward trend and lots of multiple offers on properties well into the summer.

South Riding, 20152 Housing Market Update

Here’s a look at what’s going on with the South Riding/20152 zip code housing market…

South Riding/20152 Zip Code Median Price

The median price for single family and town homes in South Riding/20152 zip code is showing a slight uptick after having dropped over 70 percent over the last 2.5 years. We’ll need to see some more evidence of median prices going sideways or up to call it a trend.

Condo are in the same boat as single family and town homes. After having dropped over 60 percent over the last 2.5 years, they showing slight signs of stabilizing. We’ll have to wait and see what median prices do this summer and fall before coming to a more firm conclusion.

South Riding/20152 Inventory

Inventory of single family and town homes spiked like crazy in the 2nd quarter of 2007 and South Riding/20152 zip code has been working it off ever since. Inventory of single family and town homes is down over 40 percent from July 2007 and down almost 20 percent from this time last year.

Condo inventory spiked way up, then went pretty much sideways for a year and is now down almost 40 percent from this time last year. It’s gone up slightly over the past two months, but appears to be going sideways at the moment.

South Riding/20152 Housing Market Overview

The South Riding and 20152 zip code housing market is a bit more volatile than other markets in Loudoun County because it’ has less total properties within its’ boundaries with everything from condos to large McMansions. The lower price points are selling faster and at a higher rate.

Much like the rest of Loudoun County and Northern Virginia in general, if the property is priced well, it will sell in less than 30 days. If it’s not priced correctly, it’ll just sit on the market collecting dust.

Ashburn Housing Market Update

Here’s a look at what’s going on with the Ashburn housing market (20147 and 20148 zip codes)…

Ashburn Median Price

After it’s most recent drop from October 2008 through March 2009, the median price for single family and town homes in Ashburn has ticked up over the past two months.

Condos in Ashburn aren’t showing an uptick in median price, but they have plateaued.

Ashburn Inventory

The number of homes for sale in Ashburn continued it’s downward trend. We saw an uptick during the “spring market”, but inventory is either plateauing or on the way down once again. A downward trend should continue through the summer months because many sellers think that the summer is not a good time to put their homes on the market.

Ashburn Housing Market Overview

As inventory diminishes and buyer demand increases (thanks to lower prices, historically low rates, $8K tax credit, etc), we’re seeing the market stabilize a bit. We’re even seeing pockets of Ashburn with slight price appreciation due such low inventory and increased buyer demand.

Homes that are priced well are getting a lot of foot traffic and a purchase offer within 1 to 3 weeks on the market. Homes priced slightly below (or way below as is the case with many bank-owned and short-sale properties) are getting multiple offers and are bidding up over asking price within days of hitting the market.

Unless the inventory or rates increase (or some huge economic news rattles the entire nation), we’ll see these trends and this type of market continue through at least the summer.