Dulles, Loudoun Metro Rail Project Update (and my $0.02)

 

There’s been a lot of talk lately about the Dulles/Loudoun metro rail project. It’s a hot topic because there’s a lot of money involved and a lot at stake – for everyone. Well, here’s an update…

I had the opportunity to attend a forum on the Dulles/Loudoun metro rail project last month. It took place at the Dulles Area Association of REALTORS(r) and featured three speakers…

• Pat Nowakowski, Chief Construction Manager, Dulles Rail, MWAA
• Patricia Nikoson, President, Dulles Corridor Rail Association
• Honorable Suzanne Volpe, Loudoun County Board of Supervisors

Here’s the update in a nutshell…

• Loudoun County is still up in the air as to whether they want to commit to Phase 2 of the Dulles/Loudoun metro rail project.
• Loudoun received a one-month extension from June 4, 2012 to July 4, 2012 to decide whether they’re in or out (a bit ironic that the deadline is “Independence Day”)
• If Loudoun opts in, they will move forward with the plans to extend the metro rail all the way to Route 772 (Loudoun County Parkway)
• If Loudoun opts out, the metro rail will stop at Dulles airport
• As you may have already guessed, Pat Nowakowsk and Patricia Nikoson are proponents of extending the metro rail all the way to Route 772 while the Honorable Suzanne Volke and the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors in general are a bit skeptical about it
• Loudoun is skeptical because the studies conducted are not very in-depth and leave out key considerations that should be taken into account. In situations like this, not being thorough and not taking everything into consideration can easily equal millions of more dollars in additional costs to Loudoun.

Here is my $0.02…

The Dulles/Loudoun metro rail project sounds good at first. The metro rail out to Arlington and then Falls Church and Vienna made a large and good impact on Fairfax County and didn’t empty their coffers. And extending the metro rail to Tyson’s and Reston makes sense as well. So it should be good for Loudoun as well, right?

After looking at the small print, I don’t think so. And here’s why…

Fairfax County has a corporate tax base of 30+ percent. But Loudoun has a corporate tax base of only about 18 percent. This means that Loudoun County home owners will bear a much higher responsibility when it comes to paying the tens of millions of dollars per year in operating and maintenance costs associated with the Dulles/Loudoun metro rail project.

Fairfax County has a much higher population than Loudoun County – 1,086,743 versus 312,311 (2010). This puts the cost/tax burden per resident and home owner in Fairfax County at a much lower amount than per resident in Loudoun County.

A good number of folks who will use the metro rail in Reston and Tysons’ will be working in Fairfax County and bringing jobs (and corporate taxes) to Fairfax County to help offset the cost. Some of them will also live in Fairfax County which will add to the residential/home owner taxes collected by Fairfax County.

On the other hand, the overwhelming majority of people using the metro rail in Loudoun County will be commuting to/from jobs in Fairfax County, Washington, DC and other parts of the metro area – not Loudoun County.

And let’s not forget to address the issue of people who live in other counties in VA, West Virgina or even Maryland who will be commuting along Route 50, Route 7, Route 9 and Route 15 to the metro station in order to go work in Fairfax County, DC, etc.

In essence, Loudoun County will be subsidizing neighboring localities and non-Loudoun residents.

Yes, subsidizing. Because for every dollar it costs someone to ride the metro, Loudoun will pay about half of that out of the county budget. When a metro rail rider pays $5 for a fare card, Loudoun will have to cough up about the same amount to cover the actual cost of trip.

Where does the money come from for that subsidizing? Taxes. And with such a low corporate tax base, it’s Loudoun County home owners who will get the bill stuck to them. It’s either that or Loudoun starts cutting services (and we all know how well that will go over with residents).

Now here’s the kicker (warning, PG-13 language coming up)…

Loudoun is damned if they do and damned if they don’t.

If Loudoun does NOT back out of the full Dulles/Loudoun metro rail project (aka Phase 2), they will be going in semi-blind not knowing what to fully expect when it comes to ridership, costs, future impact on residents and home-owners, etc. Current operating/maintenance costs are estimated at $30M per year. That’s a lot of money per year, but it could be a lot more than that (and most likely will be).

If Loudoun DOES back out, albeit lower, they will still have to pay a percentage of the metro rail project out to Dulles Airport. And many metro rail proponents will call the current Loudoun County Board of Superivsors, “the ones that killed that metro rail project”.

A deal with the devil was made…

Yes, I said devil. Because that’s what MWAA is starting to look and feel like. MWAA is paying a percentage of the costs of building the metro rail, but they are not responsible for much, if any of the operating/maintenance costs. And they’re passing the buck of paying the debt service on to guess who…the counties.

All the while, MWAA will retain control of the toll amount on the Toll Rd. They’ve already received approval from Virginia to raise the rates over the course of the next decade or so. Imagine paying $5 at the smaller tolls along the Dulles Toll Rd and over $16 at the big Dulles Greenway Toll (that’s each way).

Now stop imaging. Because that’s what they project tolls will be by 2026 – and that’s IF the operating and maintenance costs of the metro rail stay in line with MWAA’s “projections”.

On a related note…the Dulles Greenway is the most expensive road to drive on per mile in the United States. And the deal MWAA got on the road/land to begin with makes what they’re charging highway robbery (literally).

In case you’re wondering how Loudoun got stuck in this position to begin with…well…that’s a conversation for another day. Unfortunately, there’s no third option. It’s either in or out and both options cost a lot of money.

The current Loudoun County Board of Supervisors have it tough… They have the responsibility of making what is probably the biggest and most financially influential decision in Loudoun County’s history. And there’s no option that won’t cost Loudoun residents a lot of money nor leave both sides of the fence happy.

P.S. There were many more details discussed during the Dulles/Loudoun metro rail presentation. If you would like to get those details or discuss the project and its’ impact on Loudoun in more depth, feel free to call me – 703.582.6900.

Loudoun County Spring Real Estate Market Is In Full Effect

The Loudoun County “spring real estate market” is in full effect. The number of available homes for sale is on the rise. And the number of homes going under contract is on the rise as well. If you are waiting for the “spring market” to get here, you’d better jump in now because it’s about halfway over.

That’s right…about halfway over. I’ve been saying it for years (because it’s true) – the “spring market” starts in January. The number of homes that go under contract starts to rise sharply in January and continues through the end of May/early June. In plain English…lots of home buyers get super serious and start writing offers on homes in January and continue doing so through about the end of May/early June. Then the hot, humid, vacation and kids-back-in-school months of July, August and September roll around and the market fizzles out a bit.

To put it in visual terms, here is a graph showing the number of new, ratified contracts on homes for sale in Loudoun County…

And here is a graph showing the number of new listings coming on the market…

There are pros and cons to this time of year. If you’re a buyer, you have more choices. But you also have more competition when submitting offers. As a seller, you have more buyers looking at your property. But you also have more competition from your neighbors who are also getting looked at by the same buyers that looked at your house.

P.S. The same holds true for the rest of Northern Virginia. And this is not just a “2012 thing” – this trend repeats itself year after year in this area.

If you have questions about a specific town, community or subdivision, let me know. I’d be glad to send you a hyper-local report for the area you’re in or thinking about buying in.

 

Loudoun County News Affecting Home Buyers, Sellers

It’s been a pretty busy past week or so when it comes to news affecting Loudoun County home buyers and sellers.  In case you missed it, here’s a summary…

Loudoun Board approves new metro rail deal – But the metro rail is still not set in stone…Loudoun County still has until late next year to fully commit or back out. Whether the metro rail comes to Loudoun has huge implications on local real estate.

Loudoun supervisors must decide on Raspberry Falls pipeline by May 2012 – The fate of  Raspberry Falls (and home owners within the community) is now in the hands of the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors.

Loudoun County Public Schools’ Planning and Legislative Services Department proposes new attendance zones for Leesburg area schools – This is a “lively” debate to say the least for a variety of reasons some of which are real estate related.

Loudoun County physics teacher charged with being drunk in public at J. Michael Lunsford Middle School in South Riding – School quality/reputation plays a big part in the decision making process for many Loudoun home buyers so you can see why this can affect real estate in South Riding.

And I’m sorry to bring this up… Don’t forget that property taxes are due December 5.

New Construction Homes vs Existing Homes

Many home buyers have questions about new construction homes versus existing homes. One such question was posted by David on Trulia’s Q&A section…

New and used prices on comparable homes, in my area, are the same (Northern VA). Are there advantages of buying an older home, besides immediate possession?

Here is my $0.02 on the subject (which is also the answer I posted on Trulia)…

The prices may be the same, but what you get for your money is not the same. You will pay a premium for having a new construction home over an existing home. Why? Because it’s new.

It’s similar to buying a car – you can pay about $45K for a brand new fully loaded Mercedes C350 or you can pay the same for an excellent condition, 4 year old, decent mileage S550. Some people will go for C350 while others will go the S550 – it’s personal preference.

Regardless of which you may think you would rather go for, you should check out all your options. Have your Buyer’s Agent get you all of the info on all new construction builders/communities in your price point in the areas you’re interested in. Have them take you to see the model homes (some builders have models located in communities other than the ones you’re interested in). Have your Buyer’s Agent give you a list of all the current builder incentives, lot releases, etc. And have your Buyer’s Agent give you the inside scoop on their and their clients’ experiences with each builder in the area whether it be a local or nation builder with local presence.

As far as advantages of one versus the other…new homes are just that, new. The new smell, the lack of wear and tear, you getting to choose where everything goes (i.e. outlets, ceiling fans, HDMI points), you getting somewhat of a choice of the look and color of cabinets, etc. You also get the builder’s warranty.

The disadvantages are that you have to deal with all of the construction around you until they finish the community, the switch of the HOA from the builder to the future HOA management, the settling of the house (i.e. nail pops, dry wall tape, etc) and what some say to be lesser construction and attention to detail than “how they used to build them”.

As for existing homes, the house has already settled and the previous owner(s) have more than likely addressed those issues. You may also find than an existing older home has been renovated with higher quality materials and looks better than a new home for the same price.

For example…your new home has builders’ “level 1″ granite, decent cherry cabinets, their standard hardwood floors and the typical builder secondary bathrooms choice of materials. But the resale home has really expensive and awesome looking granite, top of the line cherry cabinets and high-end, wide plank hardwood floors and the secondary bathrooms have been renovated with top of the line contemporary vanities including granite and cabinets, awesome and expensive tile work (floor and walls), top of the line fixtures/faucet, etc.

There’s more to it than just this, but this gives you an idea of some of the differences and just how much there really is to consider. If you would like to chat in more detail about the rest of the differences and what to consider, give me a call or email me anytime. I have worked with many new construction homes in Loudoun County and stay in constant contact with sales reps at all of the new (and future) new home communities and developments in the area.

P.S. This is David’s reply to my answer: “I really appreciate your comprehensive reply to the question I posted on trulia. I would like to talk with you more. I have been prequalified for a VA loan and am looking for a home in Western Loudoun County. Can we talk? 571-XXX-XXXX”

If those of you reading this would also like to speak in more detail about this, don’t hesitate to contact me.

-Danilo

Curb Appeal – Setting the Tone, Attracting Home Buyers

Two important pieces of the marketing puzzle are web appeal and curb appeal. Getting both right is key to selling your home for top dollar in today’s market. I discussed web appeal in an earlier post entitled, “Web Appeal – Your Home’s First Impression to Buyers” (click on title to read). Today, we’re going to look at curb appeal.

Curb appeal sets the tone and attracts (or deters) home buyers. It makes your home stand out from the competition – hopefully in a good way. If done properly, it informs and attracts those just driving by as well as buyers/agents pulling up in their car to see the property in person. If done incorrectly, it will deter potential buyers and make your competition (aka similar homes for sale in the area) appear better and more appealing than yours which usually leads to the buyer placing an offer on your neighbor’s home rather than yours.

How do you go about getting an A+ grade on your home’s curb appeal? The same way you would go about getting your ready to sell. Give it a full detail. You won’t get top dollar of your car is dirty and doesn’t look well maintained. The same goes for your home.

Here’s a partial list of what should be done…

• power wash the exterior
• replace any damaged siding, bricks, wood, etc.
• give your home a landscaping facelift (mulch, shrubs, flowers, trees, grass, etc)
• fresh coat of paint if applicable
• bay and other window frames, shutter touch-up
• power wash (and possibly re-seal/stain) the deck

There’s more, but this gives you an idea of what I’m talking about.

One part of curb appeal which few agents/brokers talk about is the yard sign in the front yard. Why don’t they talk about it? Because the typical agent/broker yard sign does absolutely nothing to increase the curb appeal. In some cases, it detracts from the home’s curb appeal.

The typical agent/broker yard sign gives buyers only the following information…

• brokerage name and phone number
• agent name and phone number

The irony of it is that we, as agents and brokers are hired by you to market your home in the most effective manner possible in order to attract a ready, willing and able buyer with an offer acceptable to your terms. The bad news is that the typical yard sign gives no information about the property whatsoever which does nothing to attract a buyer which, in turn, does nothing to help sell your home.

The good news is that you don’t have to settle for the norm nor anything less than top of the line. Here’s why…

 

 

This is one example of a custom yard sign I made for a recent listing of mine. Here’s what this sign includes that others do not…

• price
• photos of the interior
• number of bedrooms and bathrooms
• description of other key interior features
• custom property web site URL

Why is this stuff on the sign? Because this is the type of information that buyers want and they want it right then and there. And as the saying goes, “If you got it, flaunt it” – inform potential buyers driving/walking by about your home, what it’s best features are and make them say, “I want to see this house!” This is key, because getting a buyer to want to see your home in person is the first step in getting an offer in your hands.

In the case of this particular listing, while the sitting at the settlement table, the buyer said, “We pulled up to the house and said, ‘Wow, that’s an awesome sign!’” That’s the kind of stuff that will make a buyer remember your home over others (i.e. “the home with the awesome sign”) which plays a part in getting your home sold for top dollar.

The bottom line is this… If you want to sell your home for top dollar in today’s market, you must have excellent and “stand out from the rest” web appeal and curb appeal. If you don’t your home will sit on the market while those around you sell or you lower the price. If your home’s web appeal and curb appeal is better than the rest, your yard sign will look like this,

 

 

Local New Home Sales Trump Rest of Nation

There’s the national new homes sales market. Then there’s the local new homes sales market. And they’re quite different from each other. The Washington, DC metro/Northern Virginia new homes sales market is ahead of the curve and doing much better than the rest of the nation.

There have been many articles and media coverage of how new home sales have slowed down. In some areas, new home sales have “plummeted” and “almost completely dried up”. Builder Magazine just ran an article, “New Home Sales Decline, Prompting Predictions of Worst Year on Record”, which paints a very gloomy picture of the new home market.

But that’s the national market. What about the local market here in the Washington, DC metro/Northern Virginia area?

Builders with developments/communities in this area saw the worst of the local new home sales market 3 to 5 years ago. Things started slowly turning around about 3 years ago. Then, as of about 18 months ago, someone lit a match under the new home sales market and the market took off.

For example, in speaking with several folks who are in the construction business, both builder employees and subcontractors, work finally began flowing about anywhere from 12 to 18 months ago. Rather than looking for side jobs to make ends meet, they’re working full time building homes across the DC metro/Northern VA area.

Another example is builder sales centers. Instead of a lot of green dots signalling open lots and sales reps throwing incentives at buyers as if they were confetti, there are red dots all over the site maps and incentives are few and far between.

And the attitude of builder sales reps is quite different… A look of despair was hard to hide a few years ago while smiles and positive attitudes are the norm nowadays.

The most impressive example is the actual number of new homes being sold and the success of communities and developments throughout the area. At the top of the list is Brambleton (Ashburn, Loudoun County, VA)…

In 2010, Brambleton set a record for the most new homes sold in its’ 10 year history. On top of that…Brambleton has sold more homes January through July 2011 than it did January through July 2010.

The thing that makes that statistic even more impressive is that Brambleton is made up of not just one builder, but 7 builders. And they all build different products and appeal to different home buyer personalities, incomes and demographics.

Why is this information important to consumers? Here are a just a few of the reasons…

1. If you are only reading national headlines, you may get a rude awakening when you walk into a new home sales center and try to negotiate 10% off the base price, get another $50K in incentives and put down a deposit on that awesome lot that was available last week.
2. You may not have believed your Buyer’s Agent when they told you something similar last week or even 18 months ago, but here’s the thing…they were telling you the truth.
3. If you’re a seller, you need to realize that you don’t have just your neighbors’ homes to compete with. You also have nearby home builders to compete with. Buyers are not just looking at existing homes – they’re also looking very closely at what home builders have to offer. And what they have to offer is often very enticing.
4. Builders know that they have the market on their side so you have to be even more careful when working and negotiating with a builder. You should have a Buyer’s Agent well versed in new construction on your side. Remember, a real estate agent’s/broker’s commission is a already written into the sales price. And no, you don’t get that commission refunded to you if you don’t have an agent/broker. So why would you not hire an agent/broker, pay the commission anyway and pad the builder’s pockets with even more profits?

If you have specific questions about the local new homes sales market, new home communities, builders or the new home purchase process in general, email or call me any time.

 

Can You Handle The Truth?

Most, if not all people say they want truth and honesty from others whether it be personally or in business. But not all people can actually handle the truth. This is especially true when it comes to their home because it’s often a perceived reflection of themselves.

Let me share a story with you illustrating my point…

Chapter One – Wanting Truth And Honesty

Several weeks ago, I was contacted by someone who had their home on the market. They were not very happy with their listing agent/broker and were thinking about switching. They contacted me after I was recommended to them by a past client of mine.

Over the course of two weeks, we exchanged numerous emails and phone calls and we had two lengthy face-to-face meetings at their home. I gave them an honest assessment of their situation which included, per their request, an assessment of how their current agent was doing from a selling/marketing standpoint.

I told them that their current listing agent was doing all the right things and their home had excellent exposure. When asked if I would do anything differently from a marketing standpoint, I said that I would do all of the things that their current agent was doing as well as a few things they were not which is what sets me apart from most other agents in the area (I give credit and take credit equally). I did not bash or disparage the other agent nor did I answer any questions that would cross any lines of legality or ethics. In fact, I gave the agent all of the credit they deserved, which was a lot.

Then they told me that they “just don’t feel right about the agent” and that there is something that “bothers” them. I told them that how they click with one agent versus another is the same way people click (or don’t click) with other people in general – you either do or you don’t. And that was not for me to discuss nor steer them one way or another. That’s something they had to decide amongst themselves on their own.

During and after they talked things over, they sent emails saying things like,

• “It was so great meeting you the other day and I thank you for my education lesson. You taught me a great deal!”
• “I will be in touch very soon- and thanks for being a guy full of integrity. I completely appreciate that.”
• “If this current offer goes no where – we will be KNOCKING on your door!!!!! You rock!”

After the offer they received did not work out, they told me they wanted to switch to me and sent me this,

• “We like the way you think. We can get the necessary doc you need to proceed with us and get to it when you get back [from vacation].”

At this point, things looked great!  But then…

Chapter Two – Not Really Wanting Nor Being Able To Handle The Truth

Their property is very unique and there was only one other property on the market that truly competed with theirs – same town, very similar price, similar size, etc. Well, that property went under contract while theirs was still active.

During our discussions about the situation, I said, “I wonder if the buyers that came through the other day are the ones that bought the property on XXXXXXXX. I say that because it would make sense for them to look at and consider that property along with yours.”

I then followed that up with facts – the property had a larger lot, more privacy due to not having a neighbor directly behind them nor having to share a driveway with another property, slightly more square footage, closer to a shopping center/amenities, etc.

Then they sent me this,

• “Actually, it would not, in our opinions! We have decided that it would be in our best interests to remain with [our current listing agent[ as [they] know the value of extremely well built homes in this area! You should be wary about criticizing the properties of potential clients in the future. Just a suggestion!”

The last sentence is what I mean when I ask you, “Can you handle the truth?” The irony is that truth and honesty is what they admired the most about me in the beginning yet, they used that against me when it didn’t agree with their personal opinion even though it was true and was exactly what they needed to hear.

In order to get the listing and make well over $10K in commission, I could have just agreed with them and told them that their home was the greatest thing since sliced bread because that’s what they obviously wanted to hear. But lying or blowing smoke to get a client is something that I will never do. Doing that is detrimental to you and will hurt your chances of selling your home.

But more importantly, it’s not what I’m about.

What I am about is honesty and the truth. I would rather be honest and truthful and waste my valuable time and money (as is the case in this situation) than lie to make thousands of dollars. Despite incidents like this, I will not ever change that philosophy.

Chapter Three – Can You Handle The Truth?

If these folks were you, would Chapter Two be written differently? Would you have taken my constructive criticism and the facts and applied them in a positive way? Or would you have also not wanted to hear the truth?

If you can handle the truth, then we will get along just fine and I would love to hear from you. If you can’t, I may not be the right agent for you.

State of the Loudoun County Housing Market

Wondering what the current state of the Loudoun County housing market is and where it’s trending? Here’s a detailed breakdown…

Loudoun County Home Buyer Activity Up

As you can see in the graph below, the average number of homes that go under contract each month in Loudoun County has been around 400 for the last half of 2010. But, starting January 2011, the number of homes going under contract increased dramatically and has been averaging just below 600 per month for the past 4 months. This means that buyers are out in greater force and actively buying properties – almost 50 percent more this year than they were the last half of 2010.

Loudoun County Housing Inventory Up…Down…Up

The number of active listings (homes for sale) in Loudoun County makes me think of the Grizzly in King’s Dominion. After hitting 1742 in September 2010, the number of active listings dropped quickly to a mere 1200-something in December, January and February (that’s a ridiculously low amount). But then it climbed quickly and is back up to 1696 as of June 2011. The increase is a trend that points away from a seller’s market, but don’t be fooled…1700 is still considered low when it comes to the total number of homes for sale in all of Loudoun County.

Loudoun County Median Sales Price Up

While the median home price in Loudoun County took another dip in the last half of 2010, it’s been on the rise in 2011. After going down in the last half of 2010 and hitting a low of $317,500 in January 2011, the median sales price hit $410,000 in June 2011. That’s almost a $100K/32% increase!

Loudoun County Average Days On Market Down

After hitting an average of only 49 days, the average days on market in Loudoun County went up to 86 (which is still not too shabby) in February 2011. Since then, the average days on market has dropped back down to 60. That’s only 2 months and is an important technical indicator that points to a seller’s market (though we need to keep an eye on the increase in active listings which may soon start to put upward pressure on the average days on market).

These statistics reinforce what my clients, myself and other active agents have been seeing on the ground…

• More buyers and investors are out buying a home or investment property this year than last year
• The extremely low interest rates have made a positive impact on the market
• Inventory is down so finding the right home for a buyer takes longer now than it did last year (patience is a virtue)
• Sellers that price, market and present their homes correctly are getting offers sooner than they would have last year
• Sellers have more negotiating power this year than last year (while buyers have less)
• Prices are higher today than they were last year (supply vs demand)

If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home in Loudoun County or would like to know what the market is like in your specific community, click here to contact me – I would happy to provide you with a free hyper-local market analysis and CMA.

River Creek Real Estate Market Update – Single Family Homes

Here’s the latest on the single family home real estate market in River Creek (Loudoun County)…

Overview

The overall single family home real estate market in River Creek is balanced – neither a seller’s nor buyer’s market. Buyer activity is up (though it’s not a buyer’s market by any means) and homes are selling in a timely manner if they are priced, marketed and presented correctly.

If you are a River Creek buyer, you will see everything from overpriced to underpriced single family homes on the market. Have your Buyer’s Agent give you the comps on any properties you’re interested in so you know how the asking price compares to current market value. If a property is at or below market value, don’t expect to “steal” the property from under the seller. If the property is underpriced by a significant amount, expect to battle it out with other buyers’ offers (yes, even in the $1M+ price point).

If you are a River Creek seller, you don’t have an overabundance of competition, but you still have competition. If you price, market and present your property correctly, you will have buyers come through and an offer in your hands in a timely manner. If you are selling your house “short” and under price it to get an offer quickly, you may very well see multiple offers on the property.

Numbers/Statistics

The number of single family homes listed for sale 2011 YTD is up 7.5% from this time last year. Not so good for sellers, but good for buyers because they have more choices. But, in the end, this stat is washed out because…

The number of single family homes sold 2011 YTD is up 28% from this time last year. This increase is much higher than the increase in homes listed which is why it washes out the previous stat. This is great news for sellers because there is more demand and helps with market values. For buyers, it means that there are more buyers actively buying properties in River Creek and you may have to face some of them in competition for the same property.

The average number of single family homes that sell each month 2011 YTD is 3.13. This is a 28% increase over this time last year (2.26 per month average). More activity in the River Creek single family home market is good news for sellers and home owners. For buyers…see the paragraph above.

The current number of active single family homes in River Creek is 21. Based on the absorption rate (3.13 per month), there is a 6.71 month supply of single family homes in River Creek. Generally speaking, anything over a 4 month supply is considered a “soft/buyer’s market”. But considering the price point, 6.71 shows a balanced market. The reason for this is because the higher the price point, the longer the average days on market and months supply of inventory.

Summary

The single family home real estate market in River Creek continues to show increased buyer activity and is considered to be a “balanced market”. Though sellers will be happy about this, some buyers may not. But remember buyers…once you move in and become a River Creek home owner, you’re going to want the exact same thing you dreaded as a buyer – a strengthening real estate market in River Creek rather than a weakening one.

If you would like more information about the real estate market in River Creek or are interested in selling or buying in River Creek, click here to contact me.

What Happens if Loudoun Backs Out of the Dulles Metrorail Project?

Loudoun County is considering backing out of the Dulles Metrorail project. More specifically, Loudoun may back out of the last two planned stops on the Silver Line in Loudoun County- Route 606 and Route 772. If this happens, it will have a huge impact on Loudoun, its’ residents and home values.

Why is Loudoun County considering backing out of the Dulles Rail project?

• Loudoun officials want an above ground station at Dulles Airport far from the actual terminal versus MWAA’s more expensive $300 million underground station that drops passengers close to the main terminal.
• This additional cost is on top of the already $1 billion dollar increase in costs to the project. And costs could very well go up even more as the project moves forward.
• Loudoun is responsible for 4.6 percent of costs associated with the building of the project
• Due to the additional costs, tolls would rise to $6.75 (one way) with Federal financing and $10.75 (one way) without Federal financing

What happens to the Dulles Rail project and stations within Loudoun if Loudoun backs out?

• The last two stops on the Silver Line would be scrapped and the Metrorail would end at Dulles Airport
• Since the Dulles Airport station is in Loudoun County, Loudoun will still be responsible for the operation and maintenance of the airport station
• Parking at and around Dulles Airport would be affected – the proposed neighboring Route 606 Metrorail station would have provided parking garages with 6,000 parking spaces

The affect on Loudoun, its’ residents and home value if Loudoun back outs of the Dulles Rail project…

Developments well into (and even beyond) the planning and approval phases will be greatly scaled back if not scrapped altogether. We are talking about millions of dollars and thousands of man hours already spent only to be thrown away at the 11th hour.

We are also talking about Loudoun sending this message to Comstock, Claude Moore Foundation and other developers,
“Don’t take our word for anything. We may just change our minds at the last minute and leave you out to dry.”
This negative stigma will reputation will stick around Loudoun for many years to come. If you think that this may not affect you as a homeowner, think again…

The majority of Loudoun’s tax base comes from residential property taxes (aka homeowners). If the corporate/business tax base increases, the tax burden on homeowners would decrease. If the corporate/business tax base stays the same or goes down, the tax burden on homeowners will increase.

Furthermore, all of the cool developments, their amenities and positive affects on home values be no more. Just look at the affect metro had on Arlington back in the day and is having on Tyson’s and Reston today…

Once the metro came out to Arlington, property values went up. Arlington became a desirable place to live and has further prospered as an easily accessible area with developments and amenities galore.

Fast forward to Tyson’s and Reston today…property values in both areas started going up well before the rest of NoVA showed any signs of stabilization or recovery. I can give you countless examples of property values going up 10 to 30 percent over the last 18 months around the future Metrorail stations including roads and arteries to/from the Tyson’s and Reston stations. I highly doubt we would be seeing this type of appreciation without the metro.

Coincidence or not?

Is it mere coincidence or is thanks to the proposed metro stations at Route 606 and Route 772 that Brambleton, Loudoun Valley Estates, South Riding, Stone Ridge and other neighboring communities have seen sales go through the roof and values hold strong over the past 18 months?

Considering that every buyer I have come across looking in those areas over the last 2 years has mentioned the future metro stations as a reason for considering buying there, I’d say it’s definitely not a coincidence.

Now consider what would happen if Loudoun backed out of those stations.

I usually remain objective in my posts, but I’m interjecting my $0.02 this time…

- Yes, costs are important to consider. And yes, costs have skyrocketed. But you should have anticipated this if you’ve read even one U.S. history book in your lifetime.

- You should be looking hard for alternatives such as Federal financing/assistance rather than just thinking about scrapping the project.

- Consider the affects on the residents and overall reputation of Loudoun.

- Consider the good the proposed metro has had on the area already, its’ future positive impact and the negative impact it will have if its’ scrapped.

- Think long term rather than just tomorrow.

It would be a shame to see Loudoun County back out of the Dulles Rail project – for everyone’s sake. I hope Loudoun County can get it together and move forward rather than backward.

 

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