Loudoun County Housing Inventory Cause for Caution

After a year of steadily diminishing housing inventory throughout Loudoun County, inventory has spiked over the last 2 months. After dropping almost 30 percent from the beginning of May 2009 to the middle of April 2010, inventory has spiked up almost 10 percent in a matter of a few weeks…

More Loudoun County housing inventory statistics…

• The number of new listings coming on the market in March 2010 was 50 percent higher than in March 2009 (1092 versus 727)
• The number of new listings coming on the market in April 2010 was 32 percent higher than in April 2009 (994 versus 752).

The increase in new listings and overall inventory may be a very welcome thing if you ask buyers. Most buyers can’t seem to find a home that meets their needs or they’re competing against multiple offers every time they do.

But if you’re a seller, that’s a different story. More homes on the market means more competition, lower selling prices and increased days on market.

Loudoun County housing inventory and the rate of new listings coming on the market is something we all need to keep our eyes on because if inventory continues to go up AND interest rates go up this summer as everyone is saying they will, the market will soften.

Article on Short-Sales in Loudoun Times-Mirror

The Loudoun Times-Mirror ran a story today entitled "The Skinny on Short-Sales". The article, written by Jason Jacks, goes over what a short-sale is, their pros and cons and how many there are in Loudoun County. I had the privilege of being interviewed for the story (thank you Jason), but it seems that I may have been misunderstood when going over the statistics.

In the article, I was quoted as saying, "about 30 percent of the sales [he's now seeing] involve distressed properties, with about half of those being short sales." That is incorrect.

Here's what the numbers show…

Almost two-thirds of all homes sold in Loudoun County are distressed properties (foreclosures/bank-owned and short-sales).

Short-sales make up almost 15 percent of all properties sold in Loudoun County and that number is steadily increasing.

Why are short-sales making up a greater and greater percentage of the homes sold in Loudoun County? I wrote a post about that over at LoudounForeclosures.com just the other day - "Percentage of Short-Sales Being Approved Increasing". Check it out when you have a chance.

Thank you again to Jason and the Loudoun Times-Mirror and sorry for the confusion.

News Stories, Developments Affecting Loudoun County Real Estate

In case you missed them, here are a few news stories and recent developments that affect Loudoun County real estate:

- Stephen Fuller, Economist, outlines how important Dulles Region is to Loudoun, Fairfax - calls it a "magnet"

- Developer, Mike Scott, wants to build Minor League baseball stadium in Loudoun County - revenue, traffic impact?

- NVRPA plans new Loudoun County park along Potomac north of Leesburg

- Leesburg making it easier for developers and businesses to set up shop downtown 

- Loudoun County and Town of Purcellville reach agreement on new high school

- Loudoun County Planning Commission recommends approval of Broadlands Regional Medical Center land use applications

- Loudoun County hiring senior budget analyst to be part of Loudoun's budget team

Loudoun Real Estate Statistics - October 2008

Here are the Loudoun County real estate market statistics for October 2008. The statistics cover supply (new listings) and demand (solds). 

    

The number of new listings in October '08 was down slightly from September '08 and down 23 percent year-over-year. This is a great sign for the overall Loudoun County real estate market.

The number of properties that sold (went under contract) in October '08 was lower than the previous month, but was 33 percent higher than that of the previous year. Though the year-over-year numbers are great, I hope that the down-tick in October buyer demand is only temporary (more on that to come soon).

NOTE: I'll be posting hyper-local real estate market statistics broken down by town and zip code tomorrow (Saturday) so stop back by to check those out as well.

How To Find Out About The Best Real Estate Deals In Loudoun County

Up until earlier this year, I was posting some of the best deals in Loudoun County here on this blog. Many of you emailed or called asking for more information about the properties or to see them in person. Well, unfortunately, I can no longer continue posting those. Based on rules and regulations, posting about a property that is listed by another agent/broker is considered "advertising" and is not allowed.

But, there is a solution! You can receive my top picks of properties for sale in Loudoun County via email. If you request the information to be sent to you, then it's no longer "advertising".

Here's how you do it…

Insert your email address and first name into the form below and then click "Submit". A thank you page will pop-up stating that you will receive a confirmation email shortly.

***You must click on the activation link in the confirmation email to start receiving future "best deal" emails. If you do not activate your email, you will not be included in the mailing list.

Please note…your email address, name or personal information will never be sold or provided to third parties. You will not receive any emails other than the best deals in Loudoun County. You will not be harrassed by sales emails or emails trying to solicit your business. It's completely up to you if/when you wish to initiate contact with me.

Send Me The Best Deals In Loudoun County!

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Stock Market and Loudoun Real Estate Inventory Two Peas In a Pod

The stock market and Loudoun County real estate inventory are two peas in a pod - they are both at their lowest levels in years.

As of 2:00pm today, the number of homes for sale in Loudoun County was 1801. This is the lowest level of inventory we've seen in years. During the last several years (since the peak of the market in summer 2005), inventory has remained well above the 2000 mark.

As for 2:00pm today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was just above the 8000 mark, it's lowest level in 5 years.

This is a good sign for the Loudoun County real estate market and adds to the continued stabilization of the local market which we've been seeing happen throughout 2008.

Note: I do not use new construction/builder listings as part of the number/data because those listings are inaccurate and builders tend to game the MLS system a lot.

Check out the "Statistics" category of LoudounScene.com for more data and analysis of the Loudoun County real estate market.

Photo Credit

Mortgage Rate Round-Up - September 13, 2008

This was a great week for borrowers locking in their rate - rates plunged almost half a point. Rates are below 6 percent. Several loan officers I spoke with yesterday said that they saw rates as low as 5.75 percent with no points.

Why did rates suddenly plunge? They plunged due to the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac take-over by the Feds which brought some much-needed calm and (some) stability to the market. Now that the Feds are running Fannie and Freddie, GSE mortgage-backed securities are more appealing to investors. That effect is felt by you and I in the form of lower rates.

What will rates do in the short to mid term? Many are expecting rates to stay at or below 6 percent through the end of the year (and the election).

What affect does this have on the real estate market in Loudoun County? We should see a tick up in buyer demand as buyers take advantage of the very low mortgage rates and prices. This summer saw less inventory and greater buyer demand and this trend should accelerate this month and next due to the even lower rates.

Source: Darran Anthony, Suntrust Mortgage and BankRate.com

Update on Brambleton Development, Builder Quick Deliveries, New Homes

Here's an update on development in Brambleton including quick deliveries/spec homes available from the various builders within the community:

Brambleton Development Update

• Beacon Terrace Community Pool is now open. It's Brambleton's second pool. The new pool consists of a main pool with a waterfall, spa, wading pool, club room, outdoor fireplace and grill, music zones throughout and wireless connectivity
• The Brambleton Town Center security staff has ditched their cars for eco-friendly Segways.
• The Blue Ridge Grill is anticipated to open on September 24th
• Winwood, Brambleton's first day care provider is set to open late Spring '90. Site development will begin soon at the Creighton Road location
• An update on the Fitness Club at the Brambleton Town Center is coming soon

Quick Delivery/Spec Homes

• Gulick Group - The Gulick Group builds estate style, 4-sides-brick homes in Brambleton.  Some home sites have water views and the option of a 4-car garage. 
  1. Currently, there are 2 immediate deliveries from their Garden Terrace Series priced at $945,900 and $1,269,500 (the Hampton and Townsend floor plans). 
  2. There is also an Ashcroft home from the New American Series available for a winter delivery with views of water and parkland.  This home has almost 5,000 square feet on 3 finished levels including a walk-out basement.
• Miller and Smith - This builder builds smaller, more affordable homes for those looking for high-quality, but not all the space and sticker price of an estate home.
  1. Rhapsody (home site 1273) - September Delivery, $586,770 Approx. 3,400 sq. ft.
  2. Rhapsody (home site 1274) – October Delivery, $573,078 Approx. 3,400 sq. ft.
  3. Rhapsody (home site 1306) – October Delivery, $593,660 Approx. 3,400 sq. ft.
  4. Clara Bow (home site 967) - October Delivery, $661,360 Approx. 4,200 sq. ft. (backs to trees)
  5. Clara Bow (home site 966) - November Delivery, $668,840 Approx. 4,200 sq. ft. (backs to trees)
• Stanley Martin - This builder competes with Miller and Smith at this price point.
  1. 23223 Christopher Thomas Lane - Homesite 1194 - Elden Model - $639,990.  4 bedrooms, 5.5 baths, finished lower level w/private bonus room.  Move in Fall/Winter 2008.
  2. 42576 Ringneck Place - Homesite 1804 - $617,795.  4 bedrooms, 4.5 baths, finished lower level. Move in Fall/Winter. 
  3. 42481 Spring Splendor Dr - Homesite 1801 - $584,050.  3 bedrooms, 3.5 baths, finished lower level. Move in Fall/Winter.  
  4. 42477 Tourmaline Lane - Homesite 1833 - $569,990.  4 bedrooms, 3.5 baths.  Move in Fall/Winter. 
  5. Model Home with lease back - 42477 Ringneck Place - Homesite 1680 - $649,990.  3 bedrooms, 3.5 baths, over 3,300 finish SF.
• Miller and Smith Town Homes
  1. Site 1347 - September Delivery - $439,990. Grand Houdini I end unit, corner site with wooded view. Three finished levels and 2,669 finished sq. ft. Standard features include granite kitchen counter,s extra third full bath, hardwood flooring in the kitchen/breakfast/great room, oversize tile, upgrade padding, bonus electrical and home theater pre-wire and more. For a limited time, Miller and Smith is offering a "Staycation" in your new home.
• Beazer Homes Condos
  1. September deliveries available. Prices range from the low $300s, depending on the model and if it is an interior or end home.

The Brambleton Town Center is still a ways from being completed. Here's a map showing the future development of the town center and the businesses coming in (click to enlarge):

 

If you'd like more information about the Brambleton community, builders or available lots/homes, please don't hesitate to contact me - danilo.bogdanovic@gmail.com or 703.582.6900 (cell).

No “Summer Slump” For Loudoun County Real Estate In 2008

Many people talk about the July/August "Summer Slump" and how Loudoun County home sales "mysteriously" drop. Well, there's been some truth to that in years past. But not this year. In fact, 2008 had one of the most fast paced residential real estate buying summers in recent years.

To show you what I'm talking about, let's look at a comparison of the summer of 2007 and this summer (2008)…

In 2007, we did see a bit of the "summer slump", specifically in July and August. Here's a graph showing the number of new listings coming on the market (supply) and the number of homes selling/going under contract (demand):

  

As you can see from the graph, the rate of new listings coming on the market stayed fairly steady only dropping 7.5 percent from June '07 to August '07. But buyer demand dropped 26 percent from June '07 to August '07, which is a significant amount. A significant drop in buyer demand compared to only a slight drop in inventory levels is one of the main reasons why prices decline. And a drop in prices is exactly what happened during the summer of 2007.

Now let's look at what happened this summer:

This graph tells a completely different story. The rate of new listings coming on the market dropped 13 percent, nearly double that of 2007. This meant less new (and existing) inventory on the market. Looking at the number of solds, it's clear that buyer demand actually increased from June to July and was still higher in August than it was in June.

So what does this mean to buyers and sellers?

For sellers, it means:

• Less competition
• More negotiating power
• Higher chance of selling faster if priced correctly

For buyers, it means:

• Fewer homes to choose from
• Less negotiating power when it comes to price
• Higher chance of competing/multiple offers on the properties that are "deals"

If you're a seller who was waiting for this year's "Summer Slump" to be over before listing their property, you missed a great opportunity. With many sellers waiting until the "fall market" to sell their property, it'll be interesting to see what happens with inventory levels and buyer demand this month and next.

Related Articles

Loudoun County Real Estate Market Statistics - 1st Half 2008 vs 2007

Loudoun Real Estate Inventory Levels Well Below National Average

Demand For Distressed Properties Outpaces Supply For First Time

Loudoun County Real Estate Market Statistics - July 2008

Wondering how the Loudoun County real estate market is doing and what the statistics are? Curious as to how it did last month and how it compares to last month/last year? Well, there’s good news… The Loudoun County real estate market is continuing to improve with inventory going down and buyer demand increasing. Check out the statistics:

Supply/Inventory

• The number of homes/listings that came on the market in July 2008 was 673. This is a 5 percent decrease from the number of homes that came on the market June 2008 (673 versus 709).
• The number of homes that came on the market in July 2008 was 26 percent less than the number of homes that came on the market in July 2007 (673 versus 907). This is a big year over year improvement and indicates continued strengthening in the Loudoun real estate market.

Demand

• The number of homes that went under contract (aka sold) in July 2008 was 550, which is the same number of homes that sold in June 2008. This is a key statistic because July is usually slower than June when it comes to buyer activity and shows that buyer demand is still strong.
• The number of homes that sold in July 2008 was 35 percent higher than the number of homes that sold in July 2007 (550 versus 358). This shows a substantial year over year improvement that has been the general trend in Loudoun County so far this year.

These statistics show that the Loudoun County real estate market is continuing to improve with lower inventory and higher buyer demand.

Next month, August, is typically one of the slowest months in real estate so we should see a "seasonal" slow down in buyer demand. But then again…that’s what they say about July too and July showed no slow down in buyer activity whatsoever.

Related Articles

Loudoun County Real Estate Market Statistics - 1st Half 2008 vs 2007

Loudoun County Real Estate Market Looking Up! (Come Check Out The Stastistics)

Loudoun Real Estate Inventory Levels Well Below National Average

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