Loudoun County Real Estate Showing Signs of Strength

During the month of April, the Loudoun County real estate market has showed signs of strengthening on both sides of the supply and demand equation.

Listings have remained steady at or near the 2600 mark for the entire month.  Currently at 2626, this shows that there hasn’t been the usual spike in new listings that outstrip the number of sales.  That was the case for 2005, 2006 and 2007 but not this year.

Demand has been very good for the month with 555 homes going under contract this month in Loudoun County with 2 more days left in the month.  In 2007 there were only 491 sales in the month of April.

Several new home builders left the area in the last couple of months including KB Homes.  This has decreased the supply of new homes in the area. 

Houses that are priced agressively are being greated by multiple contracts from buyers looking for good values.  There are a tremendous amount of buyers that have been on the sidelines for quite some time that are starting to jump into the market.   This listing in Sterling Park had 7 offers in 6 days.

We might not be at the very bottom but these four signs show that we are no longer in a freefall here in Loudoun County.

The 2008 Guide To Loudoun County

The folks over at LoudounExtra.com (Washington Post) just released "The Guide 2008: Where We Live". It’s an online guide to Loudoun County that covers everything from neighborhoods and attractions to schools and transportation.

To check it out, click here.

-Danilo

Reuters Story on Million Dollar Foreclosures Features Arko and Bogdanovic

Andy Sullivan of Reuters interviewed us back in January for a story about homes priced over $1Million going into foreclosure.  What he wrote about is still applicable today and maybe even more so.

Loudoun County Home Sales Off Significantly; Ashburn, Leesburg Hit Hardest

Through the first 12 days of the month of December, the number of homes that have gone under contract in Ashburn and Leesburg has dropped tremendously compared to the same period last year. 

In Ashburn there have been only 16 properties in the 20147 and 20148 zip codes that have secured a contract in December.  That equates to only 1.3 sales per day and projects to only 41 sales for the entire month. 

The numbers for Leesburg are not much better.  There have been only  17 sales in the 20175 and 20176 zip codes in the month of December, or 1.4 per day and a forecast of only 44 for the month.  But considering there are 240 more homes for sale in Leesburg versus Ashburn (713-473), it could be argued that the Leesburg market is softer than Ashburn.

The sales activity in Sterling has fared much better and is on track to equal the monthly total of December 2006.  As of the 12th there were 39 sales in the 20164, 20165 and 20166 zip codes which was exactly the same as the first 12 days of last December. 

For all of Loudoun County there have been only 99 homes go under contract so far this month as compared to 147 during the same time period last year.  This equates to a drop of 33% in homes sold and is significantly worse than the second half drop in homes sold (19%). 

Historical Home Prices for Loudoun County – Jan 2005-Oct 2007

We are putting together some charts for the Dulles Area Association of Realtors and we thought we would share some of them with our readers. 

Here is an example of a chart showing three different prices for Loudoun County Home Sales.  It is a monthly chart and it compares the Average List Price of homes that went under contract during a calendar month with the Average Sales Price of the same homes.  The difference between the blue line and the red line illustrates the amount a buyer was able to negotiate off the list price of the average home.  In early 2005, you can see there was little if any difference between the two prices.  That started to change in the second half of 2005 and has slowly increased.  In just the last two months the percentage has gone from 97% to 95.8%. 

The Median List Price is the midpoint of the list prices for home sales during a calendar month.  Exactly half of the homes that sold during that month had a list price higher than the median and exactly half had a list price of lower than the median.  As you can see that median price remains below the average price and usually stays in a range of 85% to 90% of the average price.  However, in the month of October the median price set a new low of only 82% of the average price.  The actual dollar amount of this spread was $82,395.

A Million Dollar Home Sells every 3 days in Loudoun County

As of today, October 19th, exactly 100 homes have sold or gone under contract that were listed at or above $1,000,000 in Loudoun County since January 1st.  That is one home every 2.92 days.  Since the mortgage crisis occurred in mid-July, there have been 29 Million Dollar homes go under contract.  This is the same rate as prior to the meltdown. 

The subdivision leading the way in $1,000,000 sales is River Creek Country Club with 10, followed by Lansdowne with 8 and Beacon Hill with 6.

The highest priced home to sell this year was a 463 acre estate in Middleburg that was listed for $14,500,000 and sold for $12,500,000 in 42 days.

Repeal the Grantors Tax

The Northern Virginia Transportation Authority was recently given the authority by the state to impose new taxes for transportation costs in Northern Virginia.  One of the most unbelievable tax increases proposed and authorized (but not yet in effect) is the Grantors Tax. 

This is a fee that every home seller pays at settlement to the State of Virginia.  Currently the tax is $1 per $1000 of the sales price of a house.  For instance, if you sell your house for $450,000 you pay the state of Virginia $450. 

The authorized increase will change the tax from $1 per $1000 to $5 per $1000, an increase of 5 times the current rate.  So now the $450 Grantors Tax will become $2250. 

Why this tax is so completely ridiculous is two-fold.  First of all, it fines the people who are leaving the area and actually lessening the amount of traffic in the area.  That is backwards.

Second, it makes people who currently live here and are considering moving up, think twice about doing so.  This actually hurts the local economy.   The move up buyer was a vital group of buyers during the bull market run of a couple years ago.

I have an idea that might do the same thing as this ridiculous tax.  How about hiring less workers to stand around on the side of the road at every highway construction zone?  Every time I drive by at least half, if not all of these workers are standing around doing absolutely nothing. 

Here is a petition to sign asking that this tax be repealed if you are opposed to the increase in the Grantors Tax.

Loudoun County Sales Statistics for July – 2007 vs. 2006

Loudoun County Sales statistics for July 2007 as compared to July of 2006 are incredibly similar in many areas.  Here is a breakdown and analysis of the median and mean comparisons of List Prices, Sales Prices and Days on Market as well as Total Sales and Sales Price as a Percentage of List Price.

July 2007 vs. July 2006

Total Sales:  397 vs 395

This number has been very similar for almost every month this year.  In fact for the first seven months of the year the difference is only 21 sales, 3039 vs. 3060. 

Average List Price:  $530,280 vs $525,247

This is the average list price of the home when it went under contract.  This is useful for determining what list price will motivate a buyer to submit an offer.  When combined with the Percentage of List Price it can give you a fairly accurate idea of what homes are actually selling for before they go to closing.

Sales Price as a Percentage of List Price: 97.5(est) vs. 97.7

This number has stayed fairly consistent and although we don’t know the exact number for July of 2007, the previous quarter the number was 97.5 and it hasn’t changed much this year.

Average Sales Price: $517,023 vs. $513,324

Contrary to what many people think, the average sales price for a home in Loudoun County has not changed much at all in the last 12 months.  And although it does show a slight increase in price versus last year, this is a little misleading due to the fact that many more newer homes have sold this July versus last July. 

Median List Price: $434,900 vs. $449,900

The median list price is the price at which half the homes sold for more than this price and half the homes sold for less.  I believe this better reflects the trend of home prices in Loudoun County because it doesn’t let a few very high priced homes skew the number.  This number is the only number that shows a significant difference versus the previous year.

Average Days on Market: 98 vs. 99

This number has stayed consistent for the last year around the 100 mark.

Median Days on Market: 69 vs. 81

This number tells us a lot more than the average Days on Market number.  The fact that the number is 12 days less than last year says that people who are listing their house this year are doing a better job of pricing it to sell.  This could mean they are pricing it lower to begin with or making adjustments to the price sooner. 

Bonus Statistic

Average Listing Price Adjustment:  $23,209 vs $30,038

This statistic is the amount of money a seller had to reduce their list price before they got to the price that enticed a buyer to write an offer. 

Coupled with the Median Days on Market statistic, the Average Listing Price Adjustment data suggests that sellers this year are pricing there properties more accurately, making smaller price adjustments and selling in a shorter period of time than the sellers of last year.

The Median Home in Loudoun County

The median list price of a home that went under contract in July of 2007 was $435,000.  Here are the pictures of those six homes and some statistics of those homes. 

4 Bedroom/2.5 Bath/1 Car Garage on .12 acres in South Riding

Approximately 2100 square feet on upper two levels, unfinished basement, built in 2002

4 Bedroom /3.5 Bath/2 Car Garage end unit in Ashburn

Approximately 2700 square feet on 3 finished levels, built in 2003

3 Bedroom/2 Full, 2 Half Baths/2 Car End Unit in Sterling

Approximately 2550 square feet on 3 finished levels, built in 1997

3 Bedroom/2 Full, 2 Half Baths/2 Car Interior Unit in Leesburg

Approximately 2900 square feet on 3 finished levels, built in 2004

3 Bedroom/3.5 Bath/2 Car Interior Unit in Sterling

Approximately 2550 square feet on 3 levels, built in 1997

3 Bedroom/2.5 Bath/2 Car Garage End Unit in South Riding

Approximately 2100 square feet on 3 levels, built in 2000

Photos courtesy of MRIS

Washingtonpost.com Launches LoudounExtra.com

Washingtonpost.com has launched a new website called LoudounExtra.com that is dedicated to coverage of Loudoun County.  It is a visually appealing site with 7 main categories that include news, sports and one our favorites, blogs.

The Living in LoCo blog written by Tammi Marcoullier is now prominantly displayed on the site.  We wrote about the Living in Loco blog in a previous post and now it seems even more people in Loudoun County will be turned on to the timely and pertinent posts that Tammi writes.

For anyone living in Loudoun County, we recommend bookmarking the new LoudounExtra.com.

We are proud and honored to have Loudoun Stats included in the LoudounExtra.com blogroll of hyperlocal content pertaining to Loudoun County, Virginia. As Loudoun Stats, the Ashburn, Virginia Community Blog, other local blogs and LoudounExtra.com continue to grow, we hope that you will have everything you need concerning Loudoun County at your fingertips.

And we’re always looking for suggestions and feedback so if you have something you would like to see a specific topic discussed or have something to share regarding Loudoun County real estate or one of ours posts, please let us know.

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