Home Seller Tips, Part Three - Pricing (and Reality)

This is part three of my three part mini-series on how to sell your home for the most amount of money in today’s market. (If you missed them, click here for part one and click here for part two). This part deals with the number one most important issue when it comes to selling your house - pricing - as well as the issue of reality.

Pricing

In most cases, the reason why a home does not sell is pricing. If it’s not priced correctly, it will simply sit on the market collecting dust while other properties that are priced correctly sell all around it.

Folks, you can not fool today’s home buyer nor a good Buyer’s Agent.

In today’s day and age, there is an abundance of information available to every home buyer with an internet connection (which around here is pretty much everyone). Buyers can get information on recent sales, historical sales, tax records, assessed values, market trends, market statistics, photos, virtual tours, videos…the list goes on.

Buyers can and will quickly and easily figure out what the fair market value of your property is. If/when a buyer sees that you are priced above market value, they are typically very quick to pass on even seeing your property and will look at another similar property that is priced more attractively. Even if there are no properties similar to yours on the market, if a buyer thinks yours is overpriced, they will wait until one comes on the market that is priced well.

Even in the off chance they have no internet connection or don’t do the research themselves, any Buyer’s Agent worth their weight in salt will let them know whether a property is priced at, below or above market value based on the current market conditions. The Buyer’s Agent will share their opinion with their buyer clients (that’s part of what they’re getting paid to do) and once they do, the buyer will most likely pass on your property.

Tip: Once a buyer gets a list of properties that meet their general criteria, they first sort them by what they look like based on photos, virtual tour, etc. Then they sort again based on price. The remaining properties are then put on the “to see in person” list. If you are not priced correctly, you won’t make that list.

How do you price your property correctly?

Check the comps. Find out what similar properties have sold for within the last 90 days. This will show you exactly what buyers are willing to pay for similar properties. And also find out what similar properties that are currently under contract were last priced at before they went under contract. That will give you an idea of which asking prices are leading to offers from buyers.

Once you have the comps in front of you, add/deduct value based on what your property has versus what the other properties have/do not have. For example…if you have an in-ground basement while the other property has a walk-out basement, you need to deduct for that.

Another example…if the other property has an unfinished basement and yours is finished, that could be a difference of tens of thousands of additional market value for your property (depending on the square footage of the basement, quality of build, etc).

Check the current market conditions. Are prices appreciating, declining or steady? Is the home inventory increasing, decreasing or steady? Is buyer demand on the way up, way down or steady? Is the inventory mostly traditional resales, foreclosures or short-sales and what percentage does each type of property comprise? How many properties similar to yours have sold past month…3 months…6 months? And the list goes on…

Market conditions is very important when it comes to pricing correctly. This is where an experienced and knowledgeable Realtor who has his/her ear to the ground comes in. If they are on top of the market and what’s going on, they can spit out accurate statistics, advice and guidance at a split second even if you wake them up at 3am from a dead sleep.

Check how much competition you have and do some recon. In many ways, this is a battle. Your competition is made up of other sellers with similar properties that have their homes on the market as well. Home buyers that come across your property will most likely come across your competitors’ properties too. If a buyer feels that your competitors’ property is a better value than yours, they will probably place on offer on their house before they place one on yours.

This is what us Realtors call, “Selling your neighbor’s house” - a buyer comes across your house, then sees your neighbor’s house, yours makes theirs look like a better deal so they buy theirs. Congrats! You’ve just helped sell your neighbor’s house and lost a potential buyer for yours. This is the last thing you want to do - especially in a declining market.

Important: If prices are declining, you will probably get less for your home now that your neighbor has sold their house. And the less your neighbor accepted for their house, the less you’ll get for yours (see paragraph 3 above).

And do some recon. Have your listing agent take you through your competitor’s homes so you can see them with your own eyes and in person. This will help you see exactly how they compare to your property and you will know what buyers are comparing your home to and how, which helps tremendously come negotiating time.

Reality

You have to be realistic. If the comps and market conditions all point to a market value between$500K and $520K, don’t list it at $575K. Your property will just sit on the market until A) you lower your price or B) market values appreciate $55K to$75K (and we all have a pretty good idea of how long that could take).

You may say, “But I want $575K!” or “I think my home is worth that much regardless of what the comps/you say.” That’s great.

But it doesn’t matter.

Your home is worth what a ready, willing and able buyer will pay for it today. And the comps illustrate what a ready, willing and able buyer has been willing to spend on a property such as yours in the last 1 to 90 days. If you are not willing to sell your home for what it’s worth in today’s market, you may not want to list it for sale in the first place.

On a related note…If you figure out that what you owe is more than what you’ll make from the sale of your home based on your property’s current market value, you have three options,

1. Don’t sell it.
2. Do a short-sale (click here for more on that).
3. Foreclosure (I strongly urge you to avoid foreclosure at all costs for a variety of reasons).

So there it is folks…my three-part mini-series on how to get the most money for your home in today’s market.

If you have any questions or concerns about anything, click here to contact me at any time. And if you’re considering selling your home and/or are interviewing several Listing Agents in the area, I would love the opportunity to interview with you and see if we would work well together.

Home Buyer Demand, Sales Up Across Loudoun and Fairfax County

Home buyer demand/sales in Loudoun County were up 11 percent in the 3rd quarter of 2009 over the 3rd quarter 2008. And it’s up 53 percent over 2007. (Buyer demand is defined by the number of homes that go under contract during a set time period)

Fairfax County had an 18 percent increase in home buyer demand/sales in the 3rd quarter 2009 over 2008. And it’s up 62 percent over 2007.

Why the increase?

1. Lower prices - prices have come down considerably since the peak making it more affordable and appealing for home buyers. And the less expensive something is, the more people can afford it
2. Low interest rates - interest rates hit historical lows and are still very low. Lower interest rate = greater purchasing power
3. Programs/benefits - Programs such as the $8000 first-time home buyer federal tax credit has helped spark demand (click here for more info on first-time home buyer tax credit). I’ve worked with more first-time home buyers this year than in any of the last 6 years (and it’s only October). Other programs such as the Freddie Mac HomeSteps SmartBuy program have also helped increased demand (click here for more info on Smartbuy program)

Will it continue?

Maybe. If rates remain steady and/or the tax credit get renewed or a similar program come out, then we’ll probably see home buyer demand steady or continue increasing (though I don’t think there’s room for too much more increase in buyer demand).

Maybe not. If rates creep up and/or the first-time home buyer federal tax credit not be renewed and/or (more) bad economic news come out, we may see buyer demand taper off or even decrease.

Who wins?

The buyers that purchased a home at a much lower price than years prior and at a low interest rate while taking advantage of the first-time home buyer federal tax credit made out the best.

Sellers came in at a close second - increased demand and very low inventory make for a winning combination when selling your home.

Leesburg Single Family Home Median Price up $35K

The median price of single family homes in Leesburg (20175 and 20176 zip codes) has gone up $35K since April. With inventory down 33 percent since 9/08 and buyer demand up, median prices have gone up. You can feel the effect of this in the housing market conditions in the area - Buyers have less inventory to choose from and more competition from other buyers while sellers are seeing more buyers coming through and competing for their property (if priced correctly) than since 2005.

Leesburg Single Family Home Median Price - up $35K

Leesburg Single Family Home Inventory - down 33 percent

“On The Streets” of the Loudoun County Housing Market

You read the news and see the statistics. You hear what you’re neighbors and friends are saying. But what is really happening “on the streets” of the Loudoun County housing market?

Here you go…

Buyers looking to get a great deal on a property are seeing well priced properties sell within weeks if not days of coming on the market. Many very well priced properties are seeing multiple offers and bidding wars - 2, 5 even 10+ offers. Many buyers are bidding on 2, 3 even 5 properties before finally having the winning offer and buying a house.

Sellers who price and market their property correctly are seeing lots of buyers coming through their property almost immediately after coming on the market. An offer within the first few weeks on the market is common for properly priced properties. On the other hand, no activity and no offers is the norm for overpriced properties. In a nutshell, Value is King.

We’re also seeing an up-tick in median prices in some areas of Loudoun County (as well as some areas of Fairfax County) - though this does not necessarily reflect an increase in any one specific property’s value. Take a look at the latest statistics regarding median prices and inventory levels in different parts of Loudoun County to see for yourself.

The local market is such because inventory levels (number of homes on the market) have decreased an average of 50 percent since 2007 and an average of 20 percent since this time last year. At the same time, buyer demand (aka number of homes being sold) has increased by an average of 50 percent thanks to historically low interest rates and the $8,000 first-time home buyer credit. This translates to more buyers trying to buy the same type of property, but there are less homes to choose from. But even though more buyers are fighting over fewer properties, buyers are not being suckered into or getting frustrated to the point of overpaying for a property.

Note: Despite the majority of the Loudoun housing market showing signs of stabilization, the $1M+ home sector is not fairing as well. Inventory is stagnant as is buyer demand. This is bad for sellers of $1M+ properties, but good for home buyers in that price point.

Another trend we’re seeing is a substantial decrease in foreclosure/bank-owned inventory on the market (thanks to the foreclosure moratoriums of late 2008/early 2009) and a significant increase in short-sale inventory. This has led to increased frustration on the part of buyers and agents some of whom are not familiar with the nuances of short-sale transactions and don’t know how to properly navigate through such a transaction. Getting a response from the bank(s) on a short-sale can take as little as 45 days and as long as 6 months with the average being about 90 days (more on this in a future post over at LoudounForeclosures.com).

Up until this year, many real estate investors were sitting on the sidelines as median prices continued their downward trend and good investment opportunities were rare. But that has changed. We’re seeing investors getting back into the market buying up distressed properties, doing rehab on them and then either flipping them for a 10 to 30 percent profit or renting them out as part of their long-term investment plan. Investors are especially prevelant in parts of Sterling and Leesburg.

And that folks, is the reality of the Loudoun (and Northern Virginia) housing market.

If you would like me to go into more detail or need information about a specific town, neighborhood or subdivision in Loudoun (or north/east Fairfax County), feel free to contact me.

Sterling Housing Market Update

Here’s a look at what’s going on with the Sterling housing market (all zip codes)…

Sterling Median Price

The median price has been falling in Sterling since the market turned until about March of this year. Over the past rew months, the median price has spiked significantly (by almost $100,000).

Sterling Inventory

Inventory of single family and town homes in Sterling has dropped by 60 percent since 2007 and 56 percent since this time last year. The condo inventory in Sterling has dropped by 45 percent since this time last year. This is most significant decrease of inventory out of any large town in Loudoun County.

Sterling Housing Market Overview

The huge drop in inventory throughout Sterling along with a huge increase in buyer demand has lead to a huge shift in the housing market in Sterling. Sterling has some of the lowest price points in Loudoun and lots of foreclosure and short-sale activity making it extremely attractive to first-time home buyers and investors. We’re even seeing areas of Sterling with slight to substantial recent price appreciation.

Homes that are priced well are getting a lot of traffic and a purchase offer within 1 to 2 weeks on the market. Homes priced slightly below (or way below as is the case with many bank-owned and short-sale properties) are getting multiple offers (5, 10, 15+ offers) and are bidding up over asking price within days, if not hours of hitting the market.

We’re seeing slight signs of the inventory leveling out. Unless it levels out, we’ll most likely see median prices continue their upward trend and lots of multiple offers on properties well into the summer.

South Riding, 20152 Housing Market Update

Here’s a look at what’s going on with the South Riding/20152 zip code housing market…

South Riding/20152 Zip Code Median Price

The median price for single family and town homes in South Riding/20152 zip code is showing a slight uptick after having dropped over 70 percent over the last 2.5 years. We’ll need to see some more evidence of median prices going sideways or up to call it a trend.

Condo are in the same boat as single family and town homes. After having dropped over 60 percent over the last 2.5 years, they showing slight signs of stabilizing. We’ll have to wait and see what median prices do this summer and fall before coming to a more firm conclusion.

South Riding/20152 Inventory

Inventory of single family and town homes spiked like crazy in the 2nd quarter of 2007 and South Riding/20152 zip code has been working it off ever since. Inventory of single family and town homes is down over 40 percent from July 2007 and down almost 20 percent from this time last year.

Condo inventory spiked way up, then went pretty much sideways for a year and is now down almost 40 percent from this time last year. It’s gone up slightly over the past two months, but appears to be going sideways at the moment.

South Riding/20152 Housing Market Overview

The South Riding and 20152 zip code housing market is a bit more volatile than other markets in Loudoun County because it’ has less total properties within its’ boundaries with everything from condos to large McMansions. The lower price points are selling faster and at a higher rate.

Much like the rest of Loudoun County and Northern Virginia in general, if the property is priced well, it will sell in less than 30 days. If it’s not priced correctly, it’ll just sit on the market collecting dust.

Leesburg Housing Market Update

Here’s a look at what’s going on with the Leesburg housing market (20175 and 20176 zip codes)…

Leesburg Median Price

The median price of single family and town homes in Leesburg has been bouncing up and down between just over $600,000 and $640,000 for over 2 years. Over the past few months, we’ve seen it go from about $608,000 to about $625,000.

On the other hand, the median price of condos in Leesburg has steadily dropped over 60 percent since the spring of 2007. The good news is that the median price hit about $245,000 at the very end of 2008 and has been going sideways, if not slightly up since then.

Leesburg Inventory

Single family and town home inventory in Leesburg was cut in half from the summer of 2007 to the spring of this year. We’ve seen an increase in single family and town home inventory over the past three months, but it looks like the rate of new inventory coming on the market may be slowing down as the summer months approach.

Condo inventory in Leesburg is down over 40 percent from this time last year. It looks like it showing signs of a potential plateau, but we’ll have to wait and see to know for sure.

Leesburg Housing Market Overview

It’s hard to generalize the Leesburg housing market because even two neighboring communities within the same zip code can have completely different housing market conditions. One example is River Creek versus Potomac Station. Another is Beacon Hill versus Shenstone Farm. Yet another is Tavistock Farm versus Stratford Landing.

Generally speaking, the Leesburg housing market is stabilizing a bit thanks to lower inventory and more buyer demand. But how much depends on the specific community/subdivision within Leesburg and price point. Some properties, such as town homes and entry-level single family homes are seeing multiple offers left and right while the $800K- $1M+ properties in communities such as River Creek, Lansdowne, Shenstone Farm and Beacon Hill are seeing less overall activity due to a much smaller buyer pool at that price point.

Median prices will probably continue their sideways trend while inventory levels level out or possibly drop a bit during the summer months depending on the type of property and price point.

Ashburn Housing Market Update

Here’s a look at what’s going on with the Ashburn housing market (20147 and 20148 zip codes)…

Ashburn Median Price

After it’s most recent drop from October 2008 through March 2009, the median price for single family and town homes in Ashburn has ticked up over the past two months.

Condos in Ashburn aren’t showing an uptick in median price, but they have plateaued.

Ashburn Inventory

The number of homes for sale in Ashburn continued it’s downward trend. We saw an uptick during the “spring market”, but inventory is either plateauing or on the way down once again. A downward trend should continue through the summer months because many sellers think that the summer is not a good time to put their homes on the market.

Ashburn Housing Market Overview

As inventory diminishes and buyer demand increases (thanks to lower prices, historically low rates, $8K tax credit, etc), we’re seeing the market stabilize a bit. We’re even seeing pockets of Ashburn with slight price appreciation due such low inventory and increased buyer demand.

Homes that are priced well are getting a lot of foot traffic and a purchase offer within 1 to 3 weeks on the market. Homes priced slightly below (or way below as is the case with many bank-owned and short-sale properties) are getting multiple offers and are bidding up over asking price within days of hitting the market.

Unless the inventory or rates increase (or some huge economic news rattles the entire nation), we’ll see these trends and this type of market continue through at least the summer.

Say “Goodbye” to sub-5 percent Mortgage Rates?

Mortgage rates are ridiculously low right now. Words such as “historically” and “unbelievably” are being put in front of “low rate of…” by lenders, the media and consumers alike. But that may changing. And quickly.

Mortgage rates have already gone up well over half of a point in the past few weeks and are over 5 percent. Heck, mortgage ratest recently went up half a percent in just one day! The increase in mortgage rates could be a sign of things to come.

Why? Because mortgage rates are artificially deflated. That’s right, I said it - artificially deflated.

The government has been pumping money into the markets to artificially keep rates down in order to stimulate the housing market and keep the entire US economy from collapsing. Aside from this infusion of borrowed money, there is very little, if anything, that justifies rates being this low.

Here are 3 major issues with what’s going on right now…

1. The government is running out of money to pump into the market. Once there’s no more to dump into the market, you’ll see rates increase almost immediately (funny how the government is starting to run low on cash and rates are already on the rise)
2. The more the US goes into debt by pumping borrowed money into the market and buying up mortgage backed securities (MBS), the more interest rates will go up in the future (for a variety of economic reasons). This problem will be even greater if the government now borrows even more money to keep mortgage rates down even longer (which they’ve already done a few times)
3. The government can only buy so many MBS and once they can’t buy any more, the MBS have to be sold on the traditional secondary market and investors. Investors are becoming less and less eager to buy MBS at such low rates and will stop buying them up until they come with a higher rate of return (aka higher mortgage rate)

Many (including the government) have previously said that rates would stay low for the remainder of 2009. But even some of those folks are starting to question that theory and are now saying that rates will start to rise well before the end of 2009 - as they’re already doing (see the following chart courtesy of BankRate.com).

Nobody has a crystal ball and can say what will happen with certainty. But many signs point to a low chance of rates going down from here or staying put and a much greater chance of them going up. We could very well be in the perfect storm and see 6 or even 7+ percent mortgage rates by the end of the year.

Related Articles

Rates Rocket Up Quickly - BankRate

Mortgage Rates Rising - CNN Money

Mortgage-Backed Securities, the Fed, Ben Bernanke and more - Mortgage News Daily