What I Learned at REBarCampDC and What It Means To You

This past Tuesday, I attended REBarCampDC - an informal “un-conference” focused on how to incorporate the latest social media and technology tools into your real estate business model. The event brought together some of the best and brightest Realtors and technology folks from around the Mid-Atlantic area - even as far away as California.

REBarCampDC proved to be a great learning experience. No matter how long you’ve been doing something, there’s always more to learn. There are always others that know more or do things differently that can give you a new/fresh perspective on things if you care to listen/learn.

But, more importantly, it proved to be a great event for my clients. Eve though my clients were not there, they will directly benefit in the form of better service and a better experience thanks to the tools I learned about at REBarCampDC.

Some of my personal highlights of the event were…

1. Home Search - the event reiterated the need to have a “Home Search” function available to my blog readers and clients. The general consensus was that FrankyMLS was the most up to date, accurate and user-friendly real estate search site in the DC/VA/MD area. I’m happy to say that I’ve had that feature available to blog readers and home buyers here on my blog since day 1.
2. Statistics - Home buyers, sellers, investors and the media want to see statistics. One of the technology gurus present present at the event was Mike Simonsen of Altos Research. Altos provides in-depth and up-to-date data in the form of tables and charts. I had the chance to sit down with Mike one-on-one to get a test run and tutorial of Altos’ new flash charts, which are interactive and should be a big hit with consumers. You can find an example of these charts on my previous blog post talking about Loudoun County housing inventory being down (click here).
3. Community Topics - Though home buyers and sellers want to know about real estate in the area, they also want to know about the area itself. Though I do talk about local businesses and community events from time to time, I will be focusing much more on this moving forward. I am currently working on several posts about local businesses and events by reaching out to owners and event coordinators for interviews, information, etc. And I’m not talking about posting the facts (What, Where, When) - I’m talking about the “feel” of these businesses and events and my personal take on them as a consumer/attendee.
4. Video - is where it’s at. This is according to many of those at the event that have been dabbling around with video. I tend to agree with them because I’ve done a few video tours of builder’s model homes and they’ve been a big hit with home buyers/consumers. Therefore, I will be doing video tours of all the builders’ model homes in the area over the next few months so that you can see what they look like from the privacy and comfort of your own home.
5. Knowing what you don’t know - is more important than knowing what you do know. Though it’s not necessarily a social media or technology topic, it was talked about a lot at the event. Blogging about or talking to clients about areas or topics that you are not an expert in is a disservice to your clients (and the general public). If you run across a buyer or seller that wants to buy or sell in an area that you’re not completely familiar with, refer them to someone who does. The consumer will value your honesty and integrity and will remember that for years to come. And what goes around comes around…the consumer you referred out as well as the Realtor that you referred them to will most likely refer people back to you at some point down the road. Same thing goes for blogging - Realtors should focus on blogging/talking about topics and area they’re familiar with rather than going outside their area of expertise for the sake of making more money.

Exchanged great ideas…one-on-one time with the top guy at a real estate technology firm…learned a lot…clients will benefit from what I learned…hung out with friends…made new friends… You can’t ask for much more!

Special thanks to Ainsley McDougal of NVAR for helping make the event possible!

The Latest Loudoun County Housing Inventory Statistics

The number of homes for sale in Loudoun County (and the entire DC metro area) is definitely either down or trending down. Let’s look at the following charts showing inventory levels of single family homes and town homes in the Sterling, Ashburn, Leesburg and South Riding/Chantilly areas:

(Note: These are new interactive flash charts - feel free to play around with them, move the slider around, etc., and let me know what you think)

Sterling

Ashburn

Leesburg

South Riding/Chantilly

Sterling Housing Market Update

Here’s a look at what’s going on with the Sterling housing market (all zip codes)…

Sterling Median Price

The median price has been falling in Sterling since the market turned until about March of this year. Over the past rew months, the median price has spiked significantly (by almost $100,000).

Sterling Inventory

Inventory of single family and town homes in Sterling has dropped by 60 percent since 2007 and 56 percent since this time last year. The condo inventory in Sterling has dropped by 45 percent since this time last year. This is most significant decrease of inventory out of any large town in Loudoun County.

Sterling Housing Market Overview

The huge drop in inventory throughout Sterling along with a huge increase in buyer demand has lead to a huge shift in the housing market in Sterling. Sterling has some of the lowest price points in Loudoun and lots of foreclosure and short-sale activity making it extremely attractive to first-time home buyers and investors. We’re even seeing areas of Sterling with slight to substantial recent price appreciation.

Homes that are priced well are getting a lot of traffic and a purchase offer within 1 to 2 weeks on the market. Homes priced slightly below (or way below as is the case with many bank-owned and short-sale properties) are getting multiple offers (5, 10, 15+ offers) and are bidding up over asking price within days, if not hours of hitting the market.

We’re seeing slight signs of the inventory leveling out. Unless it levels out, we’ll most likely see median prices continue their upward trend and lots of multiple offers on properties well into the summer.

South Riding, 20152 Housing Market Update

Here’s a look at what’s going on with the South Riding/20152 zip code housing market…

South Riding/20152 Zip Code Median Price

The median price for single family and town homes in South Riding/20152 zip code is showing a slight uptick after having dropped over 70 percent over the last 2.5 years. We’ll need to see some more evidence of median prices going sideways or up to call it a trend.

Condo are in the same boat as single family and town homes. After having dropped over 60 percent over the last 2.5 years, they showing slight signs of stabilizing. We’ll have to wait and see what median prices do this summer and fall before coming to a more firm conclusion.

South Riding/20152 Inventory

Inventory of single family and town homes spiked like crazy in the 2nd quarter of 2007 and South Riding/20152 zip code has been working it off ever since. Inventory of single family and town homes is down over 40 percent from July 2007 and down almost 20 percent from this time last year.

Condo inventory spiked way up, then went pretty much sideways for a year and is now down almost 40 percent from this time last year. It’s gone up slightly over the past two months, but appears to be going sideways at the moment.

South Riding/20152 Housing Market Overview

The South Riding and 20152 zip code housing market is a bit more volatile than other markets in Loudoun County because it’ has less total properties within its’ boundaries with everything from condos to large McMansions. The lower price points are selling faster and at a higher rate.

Much like the rest of Loudoun County and Northern Virginia in general, if the property is priced well, it will sell in less than 30 days. If it’s not priced correctly, it’ll just sit on the market collecting dust.

Leesburg Housing Market Update

Here’s a look at what’s going on with the Leesburg housing market (20175 and 20176 zip codes)…

Leesburg Median Price

The median price of single family and town homes in Leesburg has been bouncing up and down between just over $600,000 and $640,000 for over 2 years. Over the past few months, we’ve seen it go from about $608,000 to about $625,000.

On the other hand, the median price of condos in Leesburg has steadily dropped over 60 percent since the spring of 2007. The good news is that the median price hit about $245,000 at the very end of 2008 and has been going sideways, if not slightly up since then.

Leesburg Inventory

Single family and town home inventory in Leesburg was cut in half from the summer of 2007 to the spring of this year. We’ve seen an increase in single family and town home inventory over the past three months, but it looks like the rate of new inventory coming on the market may be slowing down as the summer months approach.

Condo inventory in Leesburg is down over 40 percent from this time last year. It looks like it showing signs of a potential plateau, but we’ll have to wait and see to know for sure.

Leesburg Housing Market Overview

It’s hard to generalize the Leesburg housing market because even two neighboring communities within the same zip code can have completely different housing market conditions. One example is River Creek versus Potomac Station. Another is Beacon Hill versus Shenstone Farm. Yet another is Tavistock Farm versus Stratford Landing.

Generally speaking, the Leesburg housing market is stabilizing a bit thanks to lower inventory and more buyer demand. But how much depends on the specific community/subdivision within Leesburg and price point. Some properties, such as town homes and entry-level single family homes are seeing multiple offers left and right while the $800K- $1M+ properties in communities such as River Creek, Lansdowne, Shenstone Farm and Beacon Hill are seeing less overall activity due to a much smaller buyer pool at that price point.

Median prices will probably continue their sideways trend while inventory levels level out or possibly drop a bit during the summer months depending on the type of property and price point.

Ashburn Housing Market Update

Here’s a look at what’s going on with the Ashburn housing market (20147 and 20148 zip codes)…

Ashburn Median Price

After it’s most recent drop from October 2008 through March 2009, the median price for single family and town homes in Ashburn has ticked up over the past two months.

Condos in Ashburn aren’t showing an uptick in median price, but they have plateaued.

Ashburn Inventory

The number of homes for sale in Ashburn continued it’s downward trend. We saw an uptick during the “spring market”, but inventory is either plateauing or on the way down once again. A downward trend should continue through the summer months because many sellers think that the summer is not a good time to put their homes on the market.

Ashburn Housing Market Overview

As inventory diminishes and buyer demand increases (thanks to lower prices, historically low rates, $8K tax credit, etc), we’re seeing the market stabilize a bit. We’re even seeing pockets of Ashburn with slight price appreciation due such low inventory and increased buyer demand.

Homes that are priced well are getting a lot of foot traffic and a purchase offer within 1 to 3 weeks on the market. Homes priced slightly below (or way below as is the case with many bank-owned and short-sale properties) are getting multiple offers and are bidding up over asking price within days of hitting the market.

Unless the inventory or rates increase (or some huge economic news rattles the entire nation), we’ll see these trends and this type of market continue through at least the summer.

Loudoun County Real Estate Showing Signs of Strength

During the month of April, the Loudoun County real estate market has showed signs of strengthening on both sides of the supply and demand equation.

Listings have remained steady at or near the 2600 mark for the entire month.  Currently at 2626, this shows that there hasn’t been the usual spike in new listings that outstrip the number of sales.  That was the case for 2005, 2006 and 2007 but not this year.

Demand has been very good for the month with 555 homes going under contract this month in Loudoun County with 2 more days left in the month.  In 2007 there were only 491 sales in the month of April.

Several new home builders left the area in the last couple of months including KB Homes.  This has decreased the supply of new homes in the area. 

Houses that are priced agressively are being greated by multiple contracts from buyers looking for good values.  There are a tremendous amount of buyers that have been on the sidelines for quite some time that are starting to jump into the market.   This listing in Sterling Park had 7 offers in 6 days.

We might not be at the very bottom but these four signs show that we are no longer in a freefall here in Loudoun County.

Historical Home Prices for Loudoun County - Jan 2005-Oct 2007

We are putting together some charts for the Dulles Area Association of Realtors and we thought we would share some of them with our readers. 

Here is an example of a chart showing three different prices for Loudoun County Home Sales.  It is a monthly chart and it compares the Average List Price of homes that went under contract during a calendar month with the Average Sales Price of the same homes.  The difference between the blue line and the red line illustrates the amount a buyer was able to negotiate off the list price of the average home.  In early 2005, you can see there was little if any difference between the two prices.  That started to change in the second half of 2005 and has slowly increased.  In just the last two months the percentage has gone from 97% to 95.8%. 

The Median List Price is the midpoint of the list prices for home sales during a calendar month.  Exactly half of the homes that sold during that month had a list price higher than the median and exactly half had a list price of lower than the median.  As you can see that median price remains below the average price and usually stays in a range of 85% to 90% of the average price.  However, in the month of October the median price set a new low of only 82% of the average price.  The actual dollar amount of this spread was $82,395.

A Million Dollar Home Sells every 3 days in Loudoun County

As of today, October 19th, exactly 100 homes have sold or gone under contract that were listed at or above $1,000,000 in Loudoun County since January 1st.  That is one home every 2.92 days.  Since the mortgage crisis occurred in mid-July, there have been 29 Million Dollar homes go under contract.  This is the same rate as prior to the meltdown. 

The subdivision leading the way in $1,000,000 sales is River Creek Country Club with 10, followed by Lansdowne with 8 and Beacon Hill with 6.

The highest priced home to sell this year was a 463 acre estate in Middleburg that was listed for $14,500,000 and sold for $12,500,000 in 42 days.