Local New Home Sales Trump Rest of Nation

There’s the national new homes sales market. Then there’s the local new homes sales market. And they’re quite different from each other. The Washington, DC metro/Northern Virginia new homes sales market is ahead of the curve and doing much better than the rest of the nation.

There have been many articles and media coverage of how new home sales have slowed down. In some areas, new home sales have “plummeted” and “almost completely dried up”. Builder Magazine just ran an article, “New Home Sales Decline, Prompting Predictions of Worst Year on Record”, which paints a very gloomy picture of the new home market.

But that’s the national market. What about the local market here in the Washington, DC metro/Northern Virginia area?

Builders with developments/communities in this area saw the worst of the local new home sales market 3 to 5 years ago. Things started slowly turning around about 3 years ago. Then, as of about 18 months ago, someone lit a match under the new home sales market and the market took off.

For example, in speaking with several folks who are in the construction business, both builder employees and subcontractors, work finally began flowing about anywhere from 12 to 18 months ago. Rather than looking for side jobs to make ends meet, they’re working full time building homes across the DC metro/Northern VA area.

Another example is builder sales centers. Instead of a lot of green dots signalling open lots and sales reps throwing incentives at buyers as if they were confetti, there are red dots all over the site maps and incentives are few and far between.

And the attitude of builder sales reps is quite different… A look of despair was hard to hide a few years ago while smiles and positive attitudes are the norm nowadays.

The most impressive example is the actual number of new homes being sold and the success of communities and developments throughout the area. At the top of the list is Brambleton (Ashburn, Loudoun County, VA)…

In 2010, Brambleton set a record for the most new homes sold in its’ 10 year history. On top of that…Brambleton has sold more homes January through July 2011 than it did January through July 2010.

The thing that makes that statistic even more impressive is that Brambleton is made up of not just one builder, but 7 builders. And they all build different products and appeal to different home buyer personalities, incomes and demographics.

Why is this information important to consumers? Here are a just a few of the reasons…

1. If you are only reading national headlines, you may get a rude awakening when you walk into a new home sales center and try to negotiate 10% off the base price, get another $50K in incentives and put down a deposit on that awesome lot that was available last week.
2. You may not have believed your Buyer’s Agent when they told you something similar last week or even 18 months ago, but here’s the thing…they were telling you the truth.
3. If you’re a seller, you need to realize that you don’t have just your neighbors’ homes to compete with. You also have nearby home builders to compete with. Buyers are not just looking at existing homes – they’re also looking very closely at what home builders have to offer. And what they have to offer is often very enticing.
4. Builders know that they have the market on their side so you have to be even more careful when working and negotiating with a builder. You should have a Buyer’s Agent well versed in new construction on your side. Remember, a real estate agent’s/broker’s commission is a already written into the sales price. And no, you don’t get that commission refunded to you if you don’t have an agent/broker. So why would you not hire an agent/broker, pay the commission anyway and pad the builder’s pockets with even more profits?

If you have specific questions about the local new homes sales market, new home communities, builders or the new home purchase process in general, email or call me any time.

 

State of the Loudoun County Housing Market

Wondering what the current state of the Loudoun County housing market is and where it’s trending? Here’s a detailed breakdown…

Loudoun County Home Buyer Activity Up

As you can see in the graph below, the average number of homes that go under contract each month in Loudoun County has been around 400 for the last half of 2010. But, starting January 2011, the number of homes going under contract increased dramatically and has been averaging just below 600 per month for the past 4 months. This means that buyers are out in greater force and actively buying properties – almost 50 percent more this year than they were the last half of 2010.

Loudoun County Housing Inventory Up…Down…Up

The number of active listings (homes for sale) in Loudoun County makes me think of the Grizzly in King’s Dominion. After hitting 1742 in September 2010, the number of active listings dropped quickly to a mere 1200-something in December, January and February (that’s a ridiculously low amount). But then it climbed quickly and is back up to 1696 as of June 2011. The increase is a trend that points away from a seller’s market, but don’t be fooled…1700 is still considered low when it comes to the total number of homes for sale in all of Loudoun County.

Loudoun County Median Sales Price Up

While the median home price in Loudoun County took another dip in the last half of 2010, it’s been on the rise in 2011. After going down in the last half of 2010 and hitting a low of $317,500 in January 2011, the median sales price hit $410,000 in June 2011. That’s almost a $100K/32% increase!

Loudoun County Average Days On Market Down

After hitting an average of only 49 days, the average days on market in Loudoun County went up to 86 (which is still not too shabby) in February 2011. Since then, the average days on market has dropped back down to 60. That’s only 2 months and is an important technical indicator that points to a seller’s market (though we need to keep an eye on the increase in active listings which may soon start to put upward pressure on the average days on market).

These statistics reinforce what my clients, myself and other active agents have been seeing on the ground…

• More buyers and investors are out buying a home or investment property this year than last year
• The extremely low interest rates have made a positive impact on the market
• Inventory is down so finding the right home for a buyer takes longer now than it did last year (patience is a virtue)
• Sellers that price, market and present their homes correctly are getting offers sooner than they would have last year
• Sellers have more negotiating power this year than last year (while buyers have less)
• Prices are higher today than they were last year (supply vs demand)

If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home in Loudoun County or would like to know what the market is like in your specific community, click here to contact me – I would happy to provide you with a free hyper-local market analysis and CMA.

River Creek Real Estate Market Update – Single Family Homes

Here’s the latest on the single family home real estate market in River Creek (Loudoun County)…

Overview

The overall single family home real estate market in River Creek is balanced – neither a seller’s nor buyer’s market. Buyer activity is up (though it’s not a buyer’s market by any means) and homes are selling in a timely manner if they are priced, marketed and presented correctly.

If you are a River Creek buyer, you will see everything from overpriced to underpriced single family homes on the market. Have your Buyer’s Agent give you the comps on any properties you’re interested in so you know how the asking price compares to current market value. If a property is at or below market value, don’t expect to “steal” the property from under the seller. If the property is underpriced by a significant amount, expect to battle it out with other buyers’ offers (yes, even in the $1M+ price point).

If you are a River Creek seller, you don’t have an overabundance of competition, but you still have competition. If you price, market and present your property correctly, you will have buyers come through and an offer in your hands in a timely manner. If you are selling your house “short” and under price it to get an offer quickly, you may very well see multiple offers on the property.

Numbers/Statistics

The number of single family homes listed for sale 2011 YTD is up 7.5% from this time last year. Not so good for sellers, but good for buyers because they have more choices. But, in the end, this stat is washed out because…

The number of single family homes sold 2011 YTD is up 28% from this time last year. This increase is much higher than the increase in homes listed which is why it washes out the previous stat. This is great news for sellers because there is more demand and helps with market values. For buyers, it means that there are more buyers actively buying properties in River Creek and you may have to face some of them in competition for the same property.

The average number of single family homes that sell each month 2011 YTD is 3.13. This is a 28% increase over this time last year (2.26 per month average). More activity in the River Creek single family home market is good news for sellers and home owners. For buyers…see the paragraph above.

The current number of active single family homes in River Creek is 21. Based on the absorption rate (3.13 per month), there is a 6.71 month supply of single family homes in River Creek. Generally speaking, anything over a 4 month supply is considered a “soft/buyer’s market”. But considering the price point, 6.71 shows a balanced market. The reason for this is because the higher the price point, the longer the average days on market and months supply of inventory.

Summary

The single family home real estate market in River Creek continues to show increased buyer activity and is considered to be a “balanced market”. Though sellers will be happy about this, some buyers may not. But remember buyers…once you move in and become a River Creek home owner, you’re going to want the exact same thing you dreaded as a buyer – a strengthening real estate market in River Creek rather than a weakening one.

If you would like more information about the real estate market in River Creek or are interested in selling or buying in River Creek, click here to contact me.

What I Learned at REBarCampDC and What It Means To You

This past Tuesday, I attended REBarCampDC – an informal “un-conference” focused on how to incorporate the latest social media and technology tools into your real estate business model. The event brought together some of the best and brightest Realtors and technology folks from around the Mid-Atlantic area – even as far away as California.

REBarCampDC proved to be a great learning experience. No matter how long you’ve been doing something, there’s always more to learn. There are always others that know more or do things differently that can give you a new/fresh perspective on things if you care to listen/learn.

But, more importantly, it proved to be a great event for my clients. Eve though my clients were not there, they will directly benefit in the form of better service and a better experience thanks to the tools I learned about at REBarCampDC.

Some of my personal highlights of the event were…

1. Home Search – the event reiterated the need to have a “Home Search” function available to my blog readers and clients. The general consensus was that FrankyMLS was the most up to date, accurate and user-friendly real estate search site in the DC/VA/MD area. I’m happy to say that I’ve had that feature available to blog readers and home buyers here on my blog since day 1.
2. Statistics – Home buyers, sellers, investors and the media want to see statistics. One of the technology gurus present present at the event was Mike Simonsen of Altos Research. Altos provides in-depth and up-to-date data in the form of tables and charts. I had the chance to sit down with Mike one-on-one to get a test run and tutorial of Altos’ new flash charts, which are interactive and should be a big hit with consumers. You can find an example of these charts on my previous blog post talking about Loudoun County housing inventory being down (click here).
3. Community Topics – Though home buyers and sellers want to know about real estate in the area, they also want to know about the area itself. Though I do talk about local businesses and community events from time to time, I will be focusing much more on this moving forward. I am currently working on several posts about local businesses and events by reaching out to owners and event coordinators for interviews, information, etc. And I’m not talking about posting the facts (What, Where, When) – I’m talking about the “feel” of these businesses and events and my personal take on them as a consumer/attendee.
4. Video – is where it’s at. This is according to many of those at the event that have been dabbling around with video. I tend to agree with them because I’ve done a few video tours of builder’s model homes and they’ve been a big hit with home buyers/consumers. Therefore, I will be doing video tours of all the builders’ model homes in the area over the next few months so that you can see what they look like from the privacy and comfort of your own home.
5. Knowing what you don’t know – is more important than knowing what you do know. Though it’s not necessarily a social media or technology topic, it was talked about a lot at the event. Blogging about or talking to clients about areas or topics that you are not an expert in is a disservice to your clients (and the general public). If you run across a buyer or seller that wants to buy or sell in an area that you’re not completely familiar with, refer them to someone who does. The consumer will value your honesty and integrity and will remember that for years to come. And what goes around comes around…the consumer you referred out as well as the Realtor that you referred them to will most likely refer people back to you at some point down the road. Same thing goes for blogging – Realtors should focus on blogging/talking about topics and area they’re familiar with rather than going outside their area of expertise for the sake of making more money.

Exchanged great ideas…one-on-one time with the top guy at a real estate technology firm…learned a lot…clients will benefit from what I learned…hung out with friends…made new friends… You can’t ask for much more!

Special thanks to Ainsley McDougal of NVAR for helping make the event possible!

The Latest Loudoun County Housing Inventory Statistics

The number of homes for sale in Loudoun County (and the entire DC metro area) is definitely either down or trending down. Let’s look at the following charts showing inventory levels of single family homes and town homes in the Sterling, Ashburn, Leesburg and South Riding/Chantilly areas:

(Note: These are new interactive flash charts – feel free to play around with them, move the slider around, etc., and let me know what you think)

Sterling

Ashburn

Leesburg

South Riding/Chantilly

Sterling Housing Market Update

Here’s a look at what’s going on with the Sterling housing market (all zip codes)…

Sterling Median Price

The median price has been falling in Sterling since the market turned until about March of this year. Over the past rew months, the median price has spiked significantly (by almost $100,000).

Sterling Inventory

Inventory of single family and town homes in Sterling has dropped by 60 percent since 2007 and 56 percent since this time last year. The condo inventory in Sterling has dropped by 45 percent since this time last year. This is most significant decrease of inventory out of any large town in Loudoun County.

Sterling Housing Market Overview

The huge drop in inventory throughout Sterling along with a huge increase in buyer demand has lead to a huge shift in the housing market in Sterling. Sterling has some of the lowest price points in Loudoun and lots of foreclosure and short-sale activity making it extremely attractive to first-time home buyers and investors. We’re even seeing areas of Sterling with slight to substantial recent price appreciation.

Homes that are priced well are getting a lot of traffic and a purchase offer within 1 to 2 weeks on the market. Homes priced slightly below (or way below as is the case with many bank-owned and short-sale properties) are getting multiple offers (5, 10, 15+ offers) and are bidding up over asking price within days, if not hours of hitting the market.

We’re seeing slight signs of the inventory leveling out. Unless it levels out, we’ll most likely see median prices continue their upward trend and lots of multiple offers on properties well into the summer.

South Riding, 20152 Housing Market Update

Here’s a look at what’s going on with the South Riding/20152 zip code housing market…

South Riding/20152 Zip Code Median Price

The median price for single family and town homes in South Riding/20152 zip code is showing a slight uptick after having dropped over 70 percent over the last 2.5 years. We’ll need to see some more evidence of median prices going sideways or up to call it a trend.

Condo are in the same boat as single family and town homes. After having dropped over 60 percent over the last 2.5 years, they showing slight signs of stabilizing. We’ll have to wait and see what median prices do this summer and fall before coming to a more firm conclusion.

South Riding/20152 Inventory

Inventory of single family and town homes spiked like crazy in the 2nd quarter of 2007 and South Riding/20152 zip code has been working it off ever since. Inventory of single family and town homes is down over 40 percent from July 2007 and down almost 20 percent from this time last year.

Condo inventory spiked way up, then went pretty much sideways for a year and is now down almost 40 percent from this time last year. It’s gone up slightly over the past two months, but appears to be going sideways at the moment.

South Riding/20152 Housing Market Overview

The South Riding and 20152 zip code housing market is a bit more volatile than other markets in Loudoun County because it’ has less total properties within its’ boundaries with everything from condos to large McMansions. The lower price points are selling faster and at a higher rate.

Much like the rest of Loudoun County and Northern Virginia in general, if the property is priced well, it will sell in less than 30 days. If it’s not priced correctly, it’ll just sit on the market collecting dust.

Leesburg Housing Market Update

Here’s a look at what’s going on with the Leesburg housing market (20175 and 20176 zip codes)…

Leesburg Median Price

The median price of single family and town homes in Leesburg has been bouncing up and down between just over $600,000 and $640,000 for over 2 years. Over the past few months, we’ve seen it go from about $608,000 to about $625,000.

On the other hand, the median price of condos in Leesburg has steadily dropped over 60 percent since the spring of 2007. The good news is that the median price hit about $245,000 at the very end of 2008 and has been going sideways, if not slightly up since then.

Leesburg Inventory

Single family and town home inventory in Leesburg was cut in half from the summer of 2007 to the spring of this year. We’ve seen an increase in single family and town home inventory over the past three months, but it looks like the rate of new inventory coming on the market may be slowing down as the summer months approach.

Condo inventory in Leesburg is down over 40 percent from this time last year. It looks like it showing signs of a potential plateau, but we’ll have to wait and see to know for sure.

Leesburg Housing Market Overview

It’s hard to generalize the Leesburg housing market because even two neighboring communities within the same zip code can have completely different housing market conditions. One example is River Creek versus Potomac Station. Another is Beacon Hill versus Shenstone Farm. Yet another is Tavistock Farm versus Stratford Landing.

Generally speaking, the Leesburg housing market is stabilizing a bit thanks to lower inventory and more buyer demand. But how much depends on the specific community/subdivision within Leesburg and price point. Some properties, such as town homes and entry-level single family homes are seeing multiple offers left and right while the $800K- $1M+ properties in communities such as River Creek, Lansdowne, Shenstone Farm and Beacon Hill are seeing less overall activity due to a much smaller buyer pool at that price point.

Median prices will probably continue their sideways trend while inventory levels level out or possibly drop a bit during the summer months depending on the type of property and price point.

Ashburn Housing Market Update

Here’s a look at what’s going on with the Ashburn housing market (20147 and 20148 zip codes)…

Ashburn Median Price

After it’s most recent drop from October 2008 through March 2009, the median price for single family and town homes in Ashburn has ticked up over the past two months.

Condos in Ashburn aren’t showing an uptick in median price, but they have plateaued.

Ashburn Inventory

The number of homes for sale in Ashburn continued it’s downward trend. We saw an uptick during the “spring market”, but inventory is either plateauing or on the way down once again. A downward trend should continue through the summer months because many sellers think that the summer is not a good time to put their homes on the market.

Ashburn Housing Market Overview

As inventory diminishes and buyer demand increases (thanks to lower prices, historically low rates, $8K tax credit, etc), we’re seeing the market stabilize a bit. We’re even seeing pockets of Ashburn with slight price appreciation due such low inventory and increased buyer demand.

Homes that are priced well are getting a lot of foot traffic and a purchase offer within 1 to 3 weeks on the market. Homes priced slightly below (or way below as is the case with many bank-owned and short-sale properties) are getting multiple offers and are bidding up over asking price within days of hitting the market.

Unless the inventory or rates increase (or some huge economic news rattles the entire nation), we’ll see these trends and this type of market continue through at least the summer.

Loudoun County Real Estate Showing Signs of Strength

During the month of April, the Loudoun County real estate market has showed signs of strengthening on both sides of the supply and demand equation.

Listings have remained steady at or near the 2600 mark for the entire month.  Currently at 2626, this shows that there hasn’t been the usual spike in new listings that outstrip the number of sales.  That was the case for 2005, 2006 and 2007 but not this year.

Demand has been very good for the month with 555 homes going under contract this month in Loudoun County with 2 more days left in the month.  In 2007 there were only 491 sales in the month of April.

Several new home builders left the area in the last couple of months including KB Homes.  This has decreased the supply of new homes in the area. 

Houses that are priced agressively are being greated by multiple contracts from buyers looking for good values.  There are a tremendous amount of buyers that have been on the sidelines for quite some time that are starting to jump into the market.   This listing in Sterling Park had 7 offers in 6 days.

We might not be at the very bottom but these four signs show that we are no longer in a freefall here in Loudoun County.

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